I read
Planning, policy, strategy and energy (part I) today at the Energy Bulletin, where the author discussed two books about peak oil, energy usage, and human ingenuity. I am currently in the camp that believes that the Kunstler, the author of "The Long Emergency" is accurate, with an eventual spiral into small towns, and what the author calls a medieval lifestyle (Although I believe that with appropriate social structure, such a lifestyle might not be so bad, but you still have to deal with global warming). The second author, Peter Tertzakian, has written the book "A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World". It takes a different tone on the future of humans. Here is my take, if you want to hear it.
Throughout human history, there have been marked increases in wealth and human population, and these are all associated with an increase in energy usage. In fact, when the subject of wealth creation comes up, I surmise that what is actually occuring is increased energy usage. The more energy that is used, the more wealth is created.
Now, the current paradigm, cheap oil, is based on the usage of what is most likely the most versatile energy source on the planet: oil. In order to understand the massive amount of energy that it takes to make oil, it is important to understand the entire energy 'tree', if you will. This is probably a recap for most Kossacks.
From The Big Bang Down
The big bang is the source of all energy, and, for all intensive purposes the energy that it supplied is limitless, but most of it is not accessible with current technology, but is supplies our primary energy source, the sun.
Now the sun, like the big bang, is for all modern human purposes, an unlimited source of energy. Most of it is wasted, pouring into space and missing the surface of the planet. It is another layer of entropy onto the system, but of the miniscule fraction of a percent that reaches the earth, there are several options that can occur:
- It hits the earth or ocean, and entropies into heat (essential for our environment).
- It hits a life form using clorophyl, and is transformed into a glycogen (or some other) store.
- It is converted into energy for human consumption.
The problem with the conversion for human consumption is that it is very difficult to convert this energy into any meaningful level of electricity. That is because we are dealing with a very high point on the energy chain, and human technology has not advanced to a point to use it effectively. This energy is being created now, but currently has poor return. It also cannot be converted effectively into fertilizer or into transportation or farm equipment fuel, which is extremely important.
The entropy into heat is nearly useless, but it also creates wind, waves, etc., which is another source of energy that we have a lot of difficulty accessing, and it still has a very low return rate compared to oil, and there is a reason for this.
The energy that is converted by plants into usable energy is accessible (burning wood, eating, etc.), but overuse will result in many other problems, simply because it is also necessary for the regulation of our environment. I fear that peak oil will result in a large number of humans attempting to turn to the forests for energy - but that is not an issue that I want to deal with today. However, this is a continuing point, only after I cover the next source of energy.
Now, looking again from the big bang down, again, we have geothermal energy, which is again, nearly limitless, for all modern purposes. Unfortunately, much like sun or wind energy, is nearly impossible for us to convert it into most fuels necessary for our modern way of life. Further, it has a point of presence issue, meaning that there are only a few known points on the planet where it can be accessed and used safely.
I should also mention Uranium here, but it also has the issue of about 40 years of known reserves (of course, we also have the fact that a backwards conversion from weapons grade to energy grade might be possible). There are many problems in the use of this fuel, and, once again, for most modern purposes it is useless (meaning individual transportion, farming equipment, etc.).
Considering oil, we need to look at a combination of these in its development. Hundreds of millions of years ago, plants that focused the energy of the sun into something useful died in massive quantities due to a heating of the earth, and then, over
millions of years of heat and pressure from geothermal energy, concentrated the energy of life into a highly usable and available source of energy.
Comparing wood or the suns energy that makes it to the earth to oil use is like comparing a tea leaf to crack-cocaine. Modern human society is running circles around the room, population, wealth, and energy usage wise, not realizing that our drug supply is running low, and there is no quick way to replace it. It will take millions of years for that kind of fuel to redevelop within the planet.
Energy Use and Wealth, Population
Many economists explore the modern ideal of 'wealth creation'. This entire idea seems faulty, because all wealth, for all intensive purposes, must be based in
some supplied good or useful service - but even useful services must be converted into some kind of good before wealth is realized. The wealth of human society can also be measured in population, something that is also regularly and quickly growing.
Understanding basic economics, I thought, for a very long time, that wealth creation was impossible. Now I realize, however, that what is considered wealth creation by economists is actually the increased use of the oil (
the hightly concentrated energy source) by the human population. Whoever uses the most energy has the most modern wealth. Thus, all debt is a promise of return of energy, in some way or another.
The Fault of Peter
The author of the article explains that Peter Tertzakian, the author of the second book, argues that throughout time we have altered our energy sources as necessary. He mentions wood to coal, or whale oil to rock oil. This is a
major error. Each energy source was not a shift because of necessity, but instead because the energy source was suddenly available due to technology, and more importantly, was
more concentrated and usable compared to previous sources of energy.
Before Peak Oil, in order to maintain current wealth and population levels, then, it would be important to find a readily available source of energy that could be used for farm equipment, individual transportation, mass transport, heating, plastic, fertilizer, and so many other items that it is ridiculous to even try to list them here. I do not believe that this is possible, and this is where the real risks of human survival come into play.
The Sky is Falling
If peak oil hits (more likely, when we feel its major effects), the reptilian mind that will urge humans into survival mode is going to turn on, unless, of course, we have found a meaningful alternative source of all necessary types of fuel. This is the same part of the mind that ignores all of the reports and information about SUV safety and convinces us to buy one because it is bigger, and therefore looks safer. The survival instinct is also connected to the deep seeded need of humans (especially males of all species) to have more in order to prove dominance and therefore prove fertile worth. This, if it occurs, will be the most dangerous time in human history.
Given that humans will want to live at the same level of wealth that they have come to expect, we will turn to readily available, but less useful forms of fuel, meaning coal (highly polluting and environmentally damaging), wood (polluting, less useful, environment is necessary for future human generations to exist), and other even less useful forms of energy. I do not believe that too much planning will occur (we already burn down massive quantities of important forest every year), and this energy could be burnt through quickly, leaving a planet that can only support a very small population. Of course, this is heavily pessimistic. Likelihoods can be applied to some of the following possibilities (more, guaranteed, not wanting to apply a false di- or trichotomy or greater):
- an alternative fuel source is discovered.
- a massive human die off will occur.
- we will burn down all the forests.
- many other possibilities...
Given that this is an uncontrollable loss of wealth, no matter what occurs, people are going to be upset. I worry about my family, to some extent, but I am also willing to accept. My wife and I will try to go to a wilderness survival class this summer, in order to prepare if need be, and we will also be storing several weeks of food, along with learning basic horticulture.
This is because the next wealth paradigm could very well be learning to live on as little energy as possible, rather than using as much as possible, and also living within a maintainable social paradigm (coop-ing and what-not). Peak Oil could be the great equalizer, and the proof of the superiority of the way of life of the Native Americans.