When political insiders start making predictions they get repeated by insider shows and magazines and newspapers and websites. They are then repeated on more mainstream shows, and in more mainstream magazines, and more mainstream newspapers. They get to blogs, they head out to the grassroots. They energize some and demoralize others. They cause people to run for office when they normally wouldn`t. They give people incentive to contribute money to campaigns they would normally consider longshots. Sometimes they become self-fulfilling. Here are a few groups of insiders who recently discussed the 2006 elections and control of Congress.
CQPolitics.com Board of Advisors
The CQPolitics Forum: Do Democrats Need a `Contract'? April 10, 2006
Lawrence Jacobs: If you go back and look at the individual items on the Contract with America, you will see many that were out of sync with public opinion, e.g. spending more money on defense. (The GOP's pollster at the time -- Frank Luntz -- got himself into trouble with the professional polling world by falsely claiming to have survey data showing majority support for this and other planks.)
Bruce Cain: The notion that the Democrats need to have their own Contract with America to take control of Congress is disingenuous consultant nonsense, refuted by decades of public opinion research.
David P. Rebovich: As Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio laments, the approval ratings of President Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress are so low that, this November, Democrats may win majorities in the House, Senate or both by default.
Dotty Lynch: But, the Democrats have an eager audience waiting for their big message and they have been polling and focus-grouping potential themes. They can play it round or flat, come up with a bunch of bumper stickers or even specific issues. And they probably will announce something sufficiently popular and bland -- if only to stop the media from asking the question.
Rhodes Cook: Ever since Richard Nixon captured the White House in 1968 with a "secret" plan to win the war in Vietnam, I have been impressed by the wisdom of parties saying very little when the other side is self-destructing.
If President Bush and the Republican Congress are unable to improve their poll standing in the months ahead, Democrats will probably be able to do quite nicely in November by sticking to a simple, four-word slogan: "Had Enough? Vote Democratic."
Charles S. Bullock III: If the Democrats have prospects for gaining a majority it is more likely to be realized in the Senate. It is in contests for that chamber that dissatisfaction with the administration may slay some Republican incumbents.
Susan A. McManus: The top priority for Democrats should be a GOTV (Get-Out-The-Vote) plan since the issues seem solidly on their side.
Phil Duncan: It's certainly easy to see the outlines of a GOP disaster movie script in November: If Iraq unravels, gas prices continue to climb, Bush's poll numbers remain sickly, etc., then a Democratic tide could well breach the shaky Republican levees, drowning the narrow House majority that the elephants have held for a dozen years.
Read the whole article to find out who these people are. A grim outlook for the GOP.
THE MCLAUGHLIN GROUP April 7, 2006
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Here's the rap sheet of that GOP corruption: Iraq war -- deadly, costly and unpopular; Republican President Bush -- a majority of Americans disapprove of him; Katrina aftermath -- flawed; Dubai Port deal -- bungled. Wrong track -- 66 percent say the U.S. is on that wrong track. Spending spree -- the GOP's been spreeing big-time. Immigration divide -- an acrimonious one over how to deal with resident illegal aliens. Cheney top aide Scooter Libby -- indicted, claims Bush-Cheney declassified sensitive intelligence data to co-opt press. Public mostly negative on GOP -- 50 percent want Democrats to take over Congress this November, 34 percent against Democratic takeover. Jack Abramoff, Republican -- in a lobbying scandal, already sentenced to almost six years, with more sentencing to come, plus three other aides and associates of then-Republican Majority Leader Tom DeLay.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you think, if the election were held today, that the Republicans would win or lose in the House of Representatives?
MR. WARREN: If it was today they would win. There are probably only 15 to 20 contested seats. Local issues will dominate.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Really? You think so?
MR. WARREN: But wait two months.
MR. BUCHANAN: The Democrats would take the House and they'd have a good chance of taking the Senate.
MS. CLIFT: The Democrats would win.
MR. BLANKLEY: I think most Republican operatives believe, if the election were held today, that they'd lose the House and it would be close in the Senate. But it's not inevitable.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you believe that?
MR. BLANKLEY: Yes, but it's not inevitable.
Notice that only James Warren of the Chicago Tribune believes the Republicans would keep control of the House were the election held today. He is supposed to be a more liberal member of the group. He seems to represent the more cautious of Democrats.
Every time there is a new Republican scandal exposed or new information or indictments on older Republican scandals we will here more of these predictions. Every time we get good polling information or good fundraising news we will hear more of these predictions. It is up to us to make these predictions come true and I like our odds. I am looking forward to the Democratic 50-State Canvass on April 29th. I really believe that it will help build a sense of unity among Democrats across the nation and hopefully it will be so successful it might become a monthly event.