I did not plan to write a diary today. But thanks to a link at Atrios I just read the following from Billmon:
We can't rule out a major attack on American soil. (A recent report based on Saudi intelligence sources claims the al-Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps - probably the most capable terrorist support organization in the world - already has a box on its organizational chart labeled "North America.")
I decided I needed to write down - and share -that our fears about another 9-11 may blind us to our real vulnerability, how easy it would be to sabotage our economy. I live and work on opposite sides of Washington DC. I live in the bulls-eye.
Years ago I had a conversation with a gentleman that somehow got around to a discussion of how terrorism could impact the US. I was less worried about a massive attack, because it would be possible to cause panic by striking at symbols, or by crippling key parts of infrastructure. One example I cited (and this was BEFORE the 1993 attack at the World Trade Center) was how easy it would be to fill a panel truck with explosives, park it in what was then then public garage under the Air and Space Museum and collapse that - it was at the time the most visited tourist site in the nation's capital, and was a highly visible symbol of our sense of power and history: the Spirit of St. Louis, moon capsules,etc. Hundreds would be killed and a major symbol of US power and strength would be destroyed. I do not know what if any part this conversation played, but it was not too long thereafter that the garage was closed to the public. Several of the other scenarios I discussed at that time I will not repeat now, because it turned out the gentleman with whom I was speaking had some official responsibility for infrastructure protection and I was in at least one case describing a scenario which they had identified but had not yet figured out how to prevent.
All this is preface. The quote from Billmon is of course in response to the Sy Hersh article about a possible nuclear attack on Iran. Clearly were we to initiate such an attack we could expect some kind of retribution. But to cripple this nation in a major way would not require something on the scale of multiple plan hijackings. Let me illustrate.
I live in Arlington VA, south of the Potomac River. I work in Greenbelt MD, north of the river. Twice a day I cross a bridge, normally the 14th St Bridge. There are only seven crossing points in the immediate vicinity - two bridges on the beltway, and the three within the city, from N to S respectively the Chain, Key, Roosevelt, Memorial and 14th Street Bridges. Taking out a smaller bridge, such as Chain, would not greatly impact the overall traffic flow. But were one of the big three - Roosevelt, Memorial or 14th St (especially the latter) not available, there is probably insufficient additional capacity to absorb the diverted traffic. It would not be difficult to accomplish with a suicide bomber. And were we to lose one or two spans for even several weeks, it would cause massive economic dislocation in this region. And once such an attack did succeed, would we not be forced to be checking lots of vehicles before allowing them to proceed across such a vulnerable chokepoint in our intersection? Think of the traffic jams created in NY after 9-11 with what was just a superficial checking of traffic.
But it does not have to be something quite so massive. We have already experienced another kind of terrorism on our DC roads -- Mir Amal Kansi, who got out of his car along a busy road in traffic congestion leading to the CIA headquarters and shot to death a number of people in their cars. Kansi tried to live - he escaped and fled the country, although after a massive manhunt in Pakistan he was taken into custody and returned to the US to face justice and retribution. But what if someone like that were willing to die? What if there were multiple such people? At how many points along our daily commutes are there chokepoints at which traffic comes to a crawl, or even a complete stop? What if at several of them, in multiple cities on the same day, or in different cities on successive days, people got out of there car and started killing people trapped in their cars? What if this were combined with car bombs that blew up in the middle of traffic? Would people begin to be too afraid to travel on other routes?
I have thought about these issues for years. There is so much of our infrastructure that is so easily accessible for sabotage. We do not YET live in a police state. We have had an open society and freedom of movement. We have not lived under the kind of constant threats experienced in recent years in places like Belfast, Beirut, Israel and Baghdad. But that does not mean we are not vulnerable.
We are already destroying our country by our excessive debt, personal, corporate and national. The kind of economic dislocation that would occur should another major economic shock hit is almost unimaginable. Our national leaders do not seem to be paying attention to this aspect of our national insecurity and vulnerability. The kinds of physical terrorism I have already described,while easy to accomplish for someone willing to die in the process, are psychological in impact, physical in the transportation problems they would cause, and actually less important than would be destruction of communications, or of our financial infrastructure.
My normal commute takes me right past, sometimes right through, the Capitol Hill area. I live only a few miles from the Pentagon and the CIA. I work a dozen miles south of NSA. I live no further than one ring from the bulls-eye of any future terrorist attack. Far too often I am spending at least part of my waking hours adjacent to or in the midst of a high priority target. I do not spend every waking hour worrying about whether I may suddenly be blown up - and the people I know who have lived in situations were such was possible point out that it is impossible to function if one is constantly worrying. One may develop a sense of fatalism. Part of the shock of 9-11 was how little experience most of us actually had with the possibility, despite Oklahoma City, despite 1993 WTC, despite attacks at University of Wisconsin and the US Capitol in the 1960's, despite multiple assassinations and attempted assassinations of presidents, president-elects, presidential candidates and other leaders.
From my perch next to -- or in - the bulls-eye, it would not take too many incidents to create a major panic and a major crisis in the US. And were I the leader of a nation under threat of nuclear attack by the United States, I might, if slightly paranoid myself, seriously consider firing a warning shot across the bow of that great ship of state the US Government. I might if I had assets launch a couple of preemptive `terrorist"incidents to remind the US that it was not as invulnerable as it thinks. Now given the leadership of this administration, they would almost certainly attempt to claim that this would justify any attack they had already contemplated and planned, even if not yet initiated. That would be a miscalculation on the part of the leadership of Iran.
But it would also give some in this administration an excuse to do what they apparently have already longed to do, sought legal justification to do, and that is to suspend any part of our Constitutional guarantees and rights, our democratic processes (such as elections they might lose) and govern by fiat. If I have a sense of paranoia, it is that we may see a series of events spiraling out of control that leads neither to nuclear attacks on Iran nor massive terrorist attacks in the US, but a sufficient number of attacks that will be used as a causus belli by this administration to suppress any remaining sources of political opposition to their schemes.
And I cannot end this without also noting that there are far too many in positions of authority and influence who believe that the end times as they understand them are approaching, and have seems almost an eagerness to hasten to that final point. Please note - there are people of such believes in influence not only in our government, but among leadership in organizations and nations with whom we contest. That should also cause more than a little concern.
I had not intended to post a diary anywhere today. And although I have on occasion pondered some of the issues contained in this rambling piece, I have-- until now -- hesitated to write them all out, lest I be accused of paranoia. But as the sage once noted, even paranoids occasionally have enemies.
We cannot predict with perfect or even near-perfect foresight the full range of results for any major action we undertake, as individual, as a nation or society. We should approach major points with a certain amount of humility, recognizing that even when we are forced to take action that it may be counterproductive to our intent. I have wrestled with this kind of thinking each time I have been tempted to write something like this. But as I increasingly realize that I am in a target area, and that the chances of something being launched towards the bulls-eye at which I am located, i find that I cannot remain silent.
I will, as did acquaintances who lived in Belfast or Israel, continue to go forward with the tasks of daily living, with the plans for the future, with attempting to make a positive difference for those whom I teach. I will try to change the politics and government of this nation in the hope that we can avoid a cataclysmic situation. But I cannot forget that I live in a bulls-eye.
What about you?