First, all props to
deweyinthewoods for getting on top of the new polling numbers weeks ago, and for filling us in on the state of things "up Nort"; the territory he's in is actually really really interesting in an electoral sense. More on that later.
The District has interesting possibilities... Follow me to the flipside...
Let's get up to speed:
Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District , which has been represented by Bush lapdog Mark Green since 1998, has long been considered a "safe" Republican seat. The 8th leans Republican, to put it mildly -- it's the home of Joseph McCarthy and the site of the world headquarters of the John Birch Society, for starters, and in the last 30 years, only two Democrats have held the seat -- a local TV anchorman who lasted one term (Jay Johnson), and an anti-choice Catholic priest who was barred by the Church hierarchy from seeking reelection (Rev. Robert Cornell). Not particularly fertile grounds for a Democratic pickup, it would seem... and yet Superribbie, in the May house rankings, put this one at #17 in chance of turnover.
WI-08 is an open seat, since Mark Green's running for Governor. Green never faced serious opposition after his initial run, and has routinely scored above 70% in his reelection campaigns. He unseated incumbent Jay Johnson to win the seat in '98. He goes to everyone's church on Sundays and wears his Packers sweater whenever he's in public. Fortunately for Jim Doyle, nobody outside of the 8th really knows who he is.
The presumptive Republican nominee is John Gard, the current Speaker of the Assembly. He's being opposed by Terri McCormick, who's a winger but a bit of a party maverick, and someone I actually respect (although hardly ever agree with). McCormick doesn't have a prayer in the primary, but if she stays in until then, she'll at least take a li'l chunk out of Gard's hide. There are signs that McCormick may bow out soon, but there are also signs of bad blood and spite, so stay tuned.
For the home team, we've got a strong lineup, who so far have been playing fairly nice with each other. Here they are:
Nancy Nusbaum -- former De Pere Mayor and Brown County Executive, she's got the widest name ID in the district, and has apparently decided to kick her campaign into gear (finally).
Steve Kagen -- Appleton M.D. and longtime Dem supporter, he's self-funding to the tune of about $1.2 million and is already up with TV ads.
Jamie Wall -- young, energetic, personable, and well-organized, Dave Obey has already endorsed him and his fundraising's been going well.
Now then: as deweyinthewoods noted, the recent Mellman Group poll has Nusbaum beating Gard 43%-38%, Gard beating Kagen 38%-32%, and Gard beating Wall 39%-30%. Yet all 3 Dems are within the margin of error, Gard is saddled with high unfavorables, and the district as a whole shows a relatively high degree of discontent.
Check out the pdf of the full poll.
I've been saying for a little over a year now that this seat could flip in November. From what deweyinthewoods has said, and from what this poll is saying, I'm more convinced of that than ever. Case in point: dewey lives in a very, very interesting area, fairly Libertarian, distrustful of the status quo, and very, very pissed off at Repubs over the Crandon Mine -- they've got really long memories up there. Some of the most interesting electoral swings in the District the past few cycles have come from communities along the Wolf River, which would've been devastated by the Mine, and from what I hear (correct me if I'm wrong, dewey), plenty of them still feel sold out.
WI-08 is not even remotely representative of the country as a whole. But all political prognosticators I've seen look to this as a hot race. To be blunt, I really do think that if we take this one we take back the House.
For my own part, I've thrown down solidly with a specific candidate, but if my candidate doesn't win the primary I'll work my butt off for whoever does. That really is the mood here -- we've chosen up our sides until the primary, and after that we're on one side, because with the whiff of possibility, all the starving Dems in the 8th District now smell victory. I really hope that keeps up. If all of us work towards that same goal right through November, we'll win.
Keep your eyes on this one, Kosmopolitans.