Amongst the constant buzz of technophile websites and magazines it's sometimes hard to get a handle on what
is happenning as opposed to what
might happen, and just as importantly,
when. This is why I occasionally diary on tech developments that are imminent, as opposed to sitting on a grad-student's lab bench.
Today I'm going to focus on hybrid vehicles.
No doubt you've heard the chatter about Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, which allow a consumer to substitute electricity for a portion of their gasoline -- a signifigant proportion for those of us that drive less, as these typically provide about a 20 mile "pure EV" range. Such mod kits for popular hybrid cars have been available for a couple years now, so the news to be had here is the price tag.
That price tag was above $10k, but in recent months has fallen to the $8,000 to $9,000 (USD) range, at least for vehicle fleet owners. A good summary of the field as of last month is here.
Whether PHEVs will catch on depends a lot on how fast battery/ultracapator technology catches on. While there are more advanced battery companies than one can easily catalogue, any company looking to push this technology forward is going to have to demonstrate two things: a working model, and the ability to produce product in quantity. As such, yesterday's news that A123 systems has produced a prototype hybrid battery pack is of no small import, considering the company has already demonstrated the latter -- you can at the time of this writing pre-order DeWalt 36V power tools containing their batteries.
On the ultracapacitor front, it appears their foray into large scale production will likely take the form of a "smoother" component integrated into normal batteries to improve their performance and save the chemical cells from deterioration due to the rigors of modern-day usage patterns.
For their part, the manufacturers are making improvements as well. Introduced so far only as PR, a consortium of non-Japanese automakers are seeking to play catch-up by introducing what they are calling a "two-mode" hybrid system, claiming that it will allow the hybrid drive train to operate more efficiently at highway speeds. The hype about unseating Toyota, however, does fail to mention that the next generation Synergy Drive has similar improvements, adding a gearset to allow smaller, high-speed electric motors.
Toyota chiefs have commented frequently about halving the cost of their hybrid components, and Honda has gone back to the drawing board with the realization that if they want people to pay money for a 2-seater hybrid, it had better come at a discount compared to the competing sedans. This is probably the best way for Honda to get back in the game -- produce the cheap, ultra-efficient hybrid that more gas-conscious consumers really want, without the extra frill and associated price tag.
Timeline on all of that -- two or three years out.
As to when we will see hybrids offering E85 and/or biodiesel capability in the U.S. -- a good summary is here, though their negative assessment of diesel probably does not take into account the reduction in diesel engine price premium to be realized from ULSD and biodiesel, in that emissions systems would be cheaper.
As a sidenote that should interest both hybrid and non-hybrid consumers, HFI technology is showing some progress, in that CHEC HFI has made noise about targetting light trucks in addition to the big rigs. It will probably be years before a practically priced passenger car model is developed, however.
No sign of thermoelectric/thermomechanical heat recovery hitting the market on the near-term horizon.