Much analysis of the immigration kerfuffle has centered on its racist underpinnings. Indeed, it seems that with polls now displaying that Americans have no more faith in the GOP--even on its bread-and-butter, terrorism--that the Republicans have conjured this issue up for lack of anything better to motivate their "base" with. Their own Wannsee conference, if you can bear the analogy.
Our impulse in the blogosphere, since we are all, at heart, conspiracy theorists (some of us just have better evidence, is all), is to immediately ask cui bono: who benefits?
However, an equally valid question in politics is who suffers?
The answers in this case are more complex than meets the eye. And the GOP is going to pay dearly for it.
It's easy to wave your hand and say that the illegals suffer and the haters benefit.
The haters wish to "preserve the Nordic character of our country" and keep from being "overrun" by brown people: they want them removed, and they want abortion and birth control banned for the Nordic girls so they are forced to start reversing demographic trends.
Who are these people? They're middle class whites from the suburbs and exurbs who generally have so little to be proud of they resort to holding up their whiteness and supposed "piety" as defense of their worth. They are frightened people, impulsively hating anything they can't understand, their avoidance of change in any form perpetuating, and to them justifiying, their complete moral, philosophical, economic and genetic stasis.
Those are the only people that have any inclination to cheer immigration reform. But apart from a few congressional districts they are, thankfully, an electoral minority.
But who else, other than the illegals, suffer from this effort to purge? Just about everyone else, in fact. Business, especially agriculture, obviously suffers. Many businesses that were able to retain operations here due to the restraint on wages illegal immigration allows will have the business case shifted to complete offshoring should immigration reform be effective. This will hurt their entire job mix, including low-wage citizens who one may have thought would benefit from decreases in labor supply onshore.
Most likely, the republicans will carve out enough wiggle room for their masters, big business, to continue operations. But it's unlikely they can throw their hateful base much of a steak without hurting a key part of their electoral mix. This is the upper-middle class: the most influential group in America today.
Also known as the "white collar" set, the "petit bourgeoisie", the "professionals" or "investor class", the upper-middle class households generally make, for this analysis, between $100-$250,000 per year. They live in cities and suburbs, have four-year degrees, multiple cars, the like. And they fancy themselves as members of the real upper class: those with liquid net worths over $5 million.
The real upper class isn't affected by much of anything, much less immigration reform. They can afford to hire greencarded help to tend their estates, their kids, their car collections; to cook their meals and manicure their private golf courses. Not only can they afford it, they want it, because they don't want any trouble, and would be concerned about bringing scofflaws into their compounds.
But for the ambitious upper-middle class, who wish to have these perks--someone to manicure their little lawns and fingernails, to clean their houses, paint and mend their rental properties and, for the wealthier of them, change their babies' diapers--paying full rate for help hurts. That will mean keeping the old Cherokee and foregoing the new Rover. That will mean keeping up appearances will be a real challenge--maybe municipal bedding will have to be replaced by perennials, and--what to buy?
It's easy to make fun of all stereotypes, and the typical American petit bourgeois may be easiest of all for me anyway. But these people vote. And these people are your swing voter. They are the ones who wonder what they are getting for their tax bill their professional accountant hands them every year. They are the ones who buy all those medicines and procedures and gag on their health insurance premiums and how little they cover. They are the ones who make noise about both the environment and interference in their businesses. They read newspapers, and virtually every national political battle boils down to impressing them.
And when they finally think through the immigration issue, and consider how much closer to the upper class, than the middle class, the backs of the uncomplaining, diligent immigrant worker carry them, they will see that this effort is aimed squarely at their comfort and lifestyle. From the price of their strawberries to the maintenance of their country clubs, the poor immigrant is what enables them to gratify themselves impulsively without paying a dear cost.
And they will demand that America's Dirty Little Secret be swept back under the rug.
Or they will sweep America's Dirty Little Party right out of government.