For the Thomas Friedmans and other Middle East "experts" who think that starting the Iraq war was a great way to bring about regime change, this ones for you.
AP
With a new Iraqi government in place, Iran is positioning itself to play a major role here at a time when American influence is showing signs of faltering.
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Concerns about Iran have simmered since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq removed a Sunni-dominated dictatorship and set the stage for democracy -- or, inevitably, Shiite rule in a country where Shiites hold an overwhelming majority.
More, below
[It] may be that Iran wants to keep Iraq bubbling just enough to tie down the Americans and keep them from any military moves against Tehran.
Ironically, both the United States and Iran share an interest in preventing Iraq from disintegrating into full-scale civil war, something that would threaten Shiite political power in Iraq and risk angering Iran's Arab minority.
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Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, ruled out talks with the Americans, citing unspecified conditions. That suggested the Iranians want to hold out until Washington is ready to put everything -- including the nuclear issue -- on the table.
All of this is consistent with what Prof. Juan Cole wrote yesterday:
Iran Cleans up in Iraq
Iran is perhaps the only unambiguous winner in the new situation in Iraq, and its foreign minister was basking in the glow on Saturday. On Friday, Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari defended Iran's right to have a civilian nuclear energy program. That can't be what Washington was going for in backing the new Iraqi government.
Which is consistent with what he wrote back in Dec. 2005:
An Iraq dominated by religious Shiites who had often lived in exile in Iran for decades is inevitably an Iraq with warm relations with Tehran. The U.S., bogged down in a military quagmire in the Sunni Arab regions, cannot afford to provoke massive demonstrations and uprisings in the Shiite areas of Iraq by attacking Iran. Bush has inadvertently strengthened Iran, giving it a new, religious Shiite ally in the Gulf region. The traditional Sunni powers in the region, such as the kings of Saudi Arabia and Jordan, are alarmed and annoyed that Bush has created a new "Shiite crescent." Far from weakening or overthrowing the ayatollahs, Bush has ensconced and strengthened them. Indeed, by chasing after imaginary weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, he may have lost any real opportunity to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon should it decide to do so.
On Memorial Days in the future, as we contemplate the death of American soldiers in Iraq, will we be forced to conclude that the biggest winner of the Iraq War was a nuclear Iran?