Okay, so I've been thinking a lot about this gubernatorial race we have coming up. There's been a lot of talk about Arnold's low approval ratings, and the stinksville ads of Angelides and the Republican lite ads of Westly. And we all discuss the different strategies in this race. We clearly have a lot of winners on our down ticket races. There are clearly a lot of factors that we all discuss. Stuff that can benefit Arnold (incumbency, likeability, movie star), things that can benefit Angelides (union support, latino sounding name, heavy fundraising among Greeks), and things that can benefit Westly (Ebay, money made while at Ebay, grassroots support). But I feel that there is one x-factor at play that no one is talking about or really looking at. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Why is he the x-factor? Because he's a fairly popular mayor, a leading Latino politician, and our nation's only leading progressive voice. He was able to help lead the boost to turnout last November that ultimately helped defeat Arnold's iniatives. He's charasmatic, good looking, and while many here disagree, I think he's done a fine job thus far. In short, he's a powerhouse. And from what I know, he has ambitions to be governor if not one day be on the national ticket. Clearly, if Westly or Angelides lost this year to Arnold, Antonio could run in 2010 when Arnold would be term limited and he'd be the most prominent Democrat in the state with almost no major Republican opponents. This brings up a major question (well more than a few). Is he going to be a good Democrat and be true to all the liberals who voted him into office a year ago (and all the liberals who have supported him on all his other races for assembly and for mayor) and campaign for Westly or Angelides or will he sit on his hands and quietly support Arnold? I say he's the x-factor for this reason. Antonio has great popularity, an ability to get out the vote, and as LA's mayor, has the bully pulpit. I think he has the great ability to influence the race. If he truly supports Westly or Angelides down the stretch, especially in a narrow race, he has the potential to make them winners. Of course if he supports Arnold and he sits on his hands (even if he endorses one of the Dems. He hasn't endorsed anyone yet), that might spell trouble and allow Arnold to get reelected. Anyway just some thoughts on the race.
Btw, although I'm not real sold on either Westly or Angelides, we have some GREAT downticket candidates this year (a far cry from other years) between Jackie Speier, Debra Bowen, Rocky Delgadillo, Jerry Brown, John Chiang, and Joe Dunn, we have some real winners here. If Jack O'Connell wins reelection on Tuesday, that means we only have 6 downticket races to win instead of 7.