The party dynamics for 2008, in regards to the presidential primary, are going to be unique this time around. I think speculating this early is foolish as there is so much time and things change. Though, I've begun to look at the political landscape and see patterns emerging that will help make better predictions. Overall, one factor, I believe, will drive the emergence of major players in 2008 for the Democratic nomination:
The 2006 Midterm Elections
How do these races influence 2008 dynamics and effect possible contenders? I believe that following the results on November 2, 2006, Democratic primary voters are going to look around and say: "Who do we thank for our victories, and who do we blame for our shortcomings?" Who are our Power-Players?
The midterms this year are extremely important for Democrats for obvious reasons. Democrats need major victories and must regain control of the US House, and with the right summer political climate may well take the US Senate as well. Also included in the midterms are Governors races and State Legislature races.
It is no surprise that major party power-players (Senators, Governors) have a large influence in their home bases in helping organize Democrats, motivate them, and supply funds to their efforts. Here in Indiana, Evan Bayh will play a significant role in elevating the Congressional campaigns of Hill, Ellsworth, and Donnelly. Bayh will make appearances, pass along money, and throw his political weight behind these races and Indiana Democrats statewide. The effect: If Democrats move big in Indiana in the midterms, Bayh's political stock will rise considerably in his home state and Democrats all over the country will take notice for his role in turning Indiana purple and his ability to drive out voters and raise money. (This says nothing for Bayh's policy support, his record, etc. Ultimately these things will factor into a nomination, but these power plays matter at making a candidate credible and elevating him to be invited to make his case to primary voters.)
So which potential, or unseen, candidates for 2008 set to benefit from party power-plays in 2006?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY):
No reason not to start with the name on everyone's lips when talking about 2008. Clinton has a unique position for 2006: she has an active re-election campaign for US Senate, but absolutely no chance of losing it. So therefore, she has an active fundraising machine set up for a personal campaign that will not be tapped into considerably. So where will this money go? Many point out how it's filling a massive war-chest to be used in the 2008 election for President. My take: If Clinton keeps her war-chest to herself and Democrats in NY don't send 5+ new Congressmen to caucus, that money will be her only friend in the 2008 primary. I think investing that money into Congressional races in 2006 will result in double, triple, etc returns following this November if Clinton can deliver nearly half of the 15 seats we need for the US House. Clinton will be a major power-player on top of being a proven fundraiser and strong personality.
Mark Warner (Gov-VA):
The buzz on his fundraising: The way he's dropping Hamiltons, you can call him Aaron Burr. Mark Warner is out there impressing Democrats and investors in all corners of the Country. He's on his way to building major name recognition and directly assaulting Clinton's dominance in the money field. But I think his power-plays in key Congressional districts and supporting Red-State Democrats is raising his political stock. Warner has campaigned and raised money for: Francine Bubsy (CA), Heath Shuler (NC), and Charlie Wilson (OH) to name a few. Red-state Democrats are attracted to Warner and want to pick his brain on becoming an immensely popular governor in the Commonwealth of Virginia. And Warner is a proven power-player: ask Governor Tim Kaine. And lookout for the VA Senate race following the primary; Warner could elevate Webb or Miller and go for the "two birds, one stone" of making a power-play while eliminating Allen as a potential opponent for President in 2008.
Other possible power-players (minimal analysis for now, maybe discuss it in the comments):
Russ Feingold (Sen.-WI):
Driving progressive voices in 2006, and possible progressive legislation in the next Congress that could place progressives in a position to be more competitive in future Congressional primaries and general elections in more regions. (Leadership, and sponsored legislation to get America back on track in the 110th Congress will be another type of power-play). By elevating progressivism, Feingold could undercut the money of Bayh-Clinton-Warner and ride to the nomination on a ground-swelling of activist support in the party. ...Perhaps you now know where my heart lies...
Tom Vilsack (Gov-IA):
Governor Vilsack better at least put a Dem in his seat in 2006, otherwise he'll be toast standing next to Governor Mark Warner.
Evan Bayh (Sen.-IN):
See above. Not sure of what Bayh has been doing outside of Indiana.
Bill Richardson (Gov-NM):
Formulating an immigration proposal for his state as a federal model could be Richardson's biggest stock when shooting for the White House in 2008. When will Democrats realize that policy needs to be born locally and vertically transmitted? It helps you win races locally and nationally, where ideas born in Washington never get back to helping local races, which are important for sending more Dems to Washington. See the pretty circle?
And then there's the power-player that fits no model but has got me excited, a real "Dark Horse" in the sense of the term, even if the man is so well known:
Al Gore (VP, Sen.-TN):
"An Inconvenient Truth" may be the message of a forward-thinking, pragmatic, inspirational leader that America will proud to stand up and serve. Here's to hoping that Climate Change/Energy Innovation will be the issue that transcends politics to elevate Gore to his rightful place alongside Kennedy and FDR as an American visionary President.
Who are some other power-players? What are some other power-plays?
By the way, what are you doing to be a power-player in your local party? Or, what have you done for the party lately?
Cross-posted at NeverApathetic