http://www.juancole.com/...
We have been asking ourselves, how do we get Sunni and Shiite factions to come together. Because that's all that matters. Right? Not if you're a Kurd.
We have to ask. Why the hell would the Kurds stay?
Why do you need government? Law and order? Self Defense? Guess what, the Kurds are way ahead of the curve on this. They have the closest thing to it in the region, and it seems that the greatest threat to the Kurds is going to be being part of Iraq. They see the disintegration of Iraq, and a solution is becoming clear. It's time for them to go.
They are sitting on oil. They don't need to be part of the Sunni Shiite bloodbath. They have a strong government, why do they need to be part of the coming horror?
If the Kurds decide that it is time for them split off, what the hell happens then?
They are the only "moderates". It would reframe the oil question.
There would no longer be an "Iraq". There wouldn't be Iraqi oil; there would be Kurdish oil, Shiite oil, and Sunni oil. Sunni oil, there's the rub, because it doesn't exist.
If the Kurds pull out, they are organized enough to be able to keep most of the trouble out. Pushing the Sunnis, who are fighting for economic survival, south into the Shiite oil fields.
Forget about Government then. It took three years to get what we have now. If the Kurds pull out, it is back to square one. Another constitution? Between who? The Sunni and the Shiite? That's it man. Game over.
We would have to redeploy into the Kurdistan, trying to keep the bloodbath out of the only place in what was once Iraq in one piece. We don't have enough troops to defend the other borders.
It's amazing how quickly it has come to this. Maybe I'm wrong. What's worse is that I think everyone else may be too. We are out of right answers.