In
1884,
William T. Sherman famously declined to be considered for the Republican presidential nomination by stating, "If nominated, I
will not accept, and if elected I
will not serve." Ever since then, an unambiguous repudiation of a potential candidacy has been known as a
Sherman statement.
The key word here is repudiation. Mere denial of political ambition typically does not dissuade motivated parties from hoping to convince or draft the reluctant candidate. And it's very easy to tell the difference.
Exercises beneath the fold.
With experience, anyone can distinguish a Sherman statement from a non-denial denial. Here's a practice example:
Sherman statement (Jun 8 2003):
Asked what she would say if Democrats asked her to run in 2004, [Hillary Clinton] said, "Absolutely, I would say no."
Not a Sherman statement (Jun 8 2003):
In the interview, [Clinton] is asked if she plans to run for president in 2008, and answers: "I have no intention of running for president."
The difference? (Jun 11 2003):
Katie Couric: "Are you prepared to say...that you will never run for president of the United States?"
Hillary Clinton: "I have said the same thing over and over and over again...I have no intention to run for president."
...
KC: "But no -- having no intention -- intentions can change."
HC: "They can."
KC: "Would you be open to the possibility in the future?"
HC: "Well, right. I can only answer day by day. I don't know where I'll be tomorrow. I hope -- God willing, I'll be right here. But I have no intentions, no plans. I'm just going to take every day as it comes."
...
KC: "You're not completely ruling it out."
HC: "Well, you know, I've tried to rule it out in every way I know how. But nobody will take my answer, so I'll just keep saying it over and over again."
Here's a list of quotes from famous people. See if you can spot the Sherman statements. (I found two but one of them doesn't count.)
Dwight D. Eisenhower (excerpts from Stephen Ambrose's Eisenhower: Soldier and President):
Jun 19 1948 (letter to Democratic Senator Claude Pepper regarding the 1948 Democratic presidential nomination):
"No matter under what terms, conditions, or premises a proposal might be couched, I would refuse to accept the nomination."
Jul 1949:
Eisenhower replied that he would never "want to enter politics", that he would never seek a vote, that he would of course do his duty, but that "I do not believe that anything can ever convince me that I have a duty to seek political office."
1949-1950:
"I am not, now or in the near future, going willingly into politics. If I ever do so it will be as the result of a series of circumstances that crush all my arguments, that there appears to me to be such compelling reaons to enter the political field that refusal to do so would always thereafter mean to me that I'd failed to do my duty."
Dec 1950 (prepared but destroyed after a meeting with Republican frontrunner Senator Robert Taft in which the isolationist Senator refused to unambiguously endorse the concept of NATO):
"Having been called back to military duty, I want to announce that my name may not be used by anyone as candidate for President -- and if I do I will repudiate such efforts."
Nov 1951:
Eisenhower replied that he would respond to a genuine draft, that he would do nothing to bring it about, that he would not repudiate the efforts of Citizens for Eisenhower, and that he wished the whole thing were over, because he certainly did not want to be President.
Dec 8 1951:
To involve himself in preconvention activity, he said, "would be a dereliction of duty -- almost a violation of my oath of office." Therefore, the effort in "which you and your close political associates are now engaged should, logically, be abandoned."
Dec 29 1951:
"The seeker is never as popular as the sought. People want what they think they can't get."
Feb 11 1952:
"You can go and tell Bill Robinson that I am going to run."
Barry Goldwater (excerpts from Rick Perlstein's Before the Storm):
Oct 1961:
"I am not interested at all in 1964 in any way."
Jan 14 1963:
"Clif, I'm not a candidate. And I'm not going to be. I have no intention of running for the presidency...Draft, nothin'! I told you I'm not going to run...I'm just not going to run. My wife loves me, but she'd leave me if I ran for this thing."
Mar 22 1963:
"Well, I have said hundreds of times that I am not. I'm running for the United States Senate. I would hate to think the Republican Party has gotten so hard up for candidates they would only talk about two."
Spring 1963:
"I am not taking any position on this draft movement. It's their time and their money. But they are going to have to get along without me."
Nov 22 1963:
"I'm still wishing something would happen to get me out of all this."
Jan 3 1964 (announcing candidacy):
"I will not change my beliefs to win votes. I will offer a choice, not an echo."
Al Gore:
2003-2004:
"You can't be missed if you never go away."
Oct 12 2005:
"I have absolutely no plans and no expectations of ever being a candidate again...I don't completely rule out some future interest, but I don't expect to have that."
Mar 20 2006:
"I'm enjoying what I'm doing. I'm not planning to be a candidate again. I haven't reached a stage in my life where I'm willing to say I will never consider something like this. But I'm not saying that to be coy; I'm just saying that to be honest -- that I haven't reached that point."
Apr 28 2006:
"Well it is a campaign, but it's not a campaign for a candidate. I'm not a candidate. It is a campaign to change the way our country thinks about global warming. But I'm not a candidate--I've been there and done that. And I found there are other ways to serve, and I'm enjoying them."
May 15 2006:
"Like I said, I'm a recovering politician. But you always have to worry about a relapse."
May 20 2006:
"I don't plan to be a candidate again for national office...I don't see any circumstances that would cause me to change my mind. I was in elective politics for 24 years. I've made four national races, two for president, two for vice president. I have found there are other ways to serve, and I'm enjoying them."
May 25 2006:
"I'm not planning to run for president again, I'm not thinking about being a candidate. I've been there and done that."
May 28 2006:
"I wanted it, and it was not to be. I am not pursuing it. I have been there, and I have done that...Why should I run for office? I have no interest in running for office. I have run for office. I have run four national campaigns. I have found other ways to serve my country, and I am enjoying them."
May 29 2006:
"I don't want to give them any false signal. I don't want to be responsible for anyone feeling that I'm inching toward running again when I'm not. You won't find a single person in Iowa, New Hampshire, or anywhere who has had the slightest signal that originated with me or anyone speaking for me...It's really more a function of my own internal shifting of gears, not an outward coyness. It's just honest. I was in elected politics for 24 years. I ran four national campaigns. I was first elected to Congress in my twenties. I was around it for all my life before that. And when I say I'm not at a point where I'm willing to say, 'Never, never, never again under any circumstances,' I'm just not at the point where I want to say that."
May 31 2006:
"I don't expect to ever be a candidate again. But I haven't reached the point where I will say, 'For the rest of my life, I will never think about that in the future.' It just seems absurd to say that. But that is not me trying to be coy."
Jun 3 2006:
"I have no plans to be a candidate for president again. I don't expect to ever be a candidate for president again. I haven't made a so-called Sherman statement, because it just seems unnecessary...I can't imagine any circumstances in which case I would become a candidate again. I've found other ways to serve [and] I'm enjoying them...There's a lot about the political process I really don't like. It's a toxic process. There are things I miss -- having the ability to influence events from the White House, of course. It's unparalleled, as I've said. But, you know, there's a lot about politics I don't think I'm particularly good at. And I also think that the urgency of creating a political environment where whoever runs for president in either party will be forced to respond to this [global warming] crisis is the most important thing that I can possibly do."
Jun 15 2006:
"I don't have any plans to be a candidate again. I am involved in a different kind of a campaign."
Jun 18 2006:
"I'm not making any plans to run for president again. I haven't made a Sherman statement because it just seems inappropriate. I haven't reached the point where I'm willing to say, 'Under no circumstances and the rest of my life would I ever think of such a thing.'"
Jun 19 2006:
"I don't have plans to do it again...My campaign now is to move this country past a tipping point on [global warming]."