http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Maryland Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. starts his reelection campaign today significantly trailing Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, according to a new Washington Post poll. Although the state's voters give the governor good marks for the job he's done, they also appear inclined to return a Democrat to the governor's mansion.
Ehrlich kicks off his campaign today at his boyhood home in the Baltimore suburb of Arbutus, attempting to become the state's first Republican governor in 50 years to serve a second term. But the poll shows why he is preparing to spend a record amount and why he is considered one of the nation's most endangered Republican governors.
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He has lost support among independents, women and voters in the central part of the state where he put together a historic win four years ago. Democrats who took a chance on him then seem ready to return to the fold for O'Malley.
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Ehrlich also won in 2002 by disrupting Democrats' traditional winning strategy of rolling up enough votes in Montgomery and Prince George's and the Baltimore region to offset losses elsewhere. But although Ehrlich got a boost of more than 50,000 votes last time in the region consisting of Baltimore and the counties of Baltimore, Harford and Carroll, the new poll shows him trailing O'Malley there by 12 points. It shows the two running even in the Central Maryland counties of Anne Arundel, Howard and Frederick, where Ehrlich won by more than 85,000 votes against Townsend.
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If the last pargaraph is true, then I don't see how Ehrlich wins this race. The only way that Ehrlich can defeat O'Malley is if he can rack up punishing margins in exurban Baltimore/Washington, while carrying the closer suburbs of Baltimore by 2-1. If Ehrlich is trailing O'Malley in suruban Baltimore, then he loses. That he is down by 12 in the areas of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard counties indicates that he is in major trouble.
Ehrlich's statewide margin in 2002 was approximately 60,000 votes. In Baltimore County he prevailed by approximately 60,000 votes. His margin in Anne Arundel was roughly 50,000 votes. If he is trailing O'Malley in both counties I don't see how he wins this election. For the Baltimore suburbs determine who wins and loses elections in MD.
For O'Malley to win he probably needs to cut the margin in Anne Arundel County to 25,000 votes. If he can keep Ehrlich's lead there to 25,000 votes, he will be doing well. In Baltimore County, if O'Malley can cut Ehrlich's 60,000 vote margin by half, or fare as well as Glendening did there in 1998, then he will also be doing well. But given that O'Malley is leading Ehrlich there, he has the edge.
Ehrlich does have a high approval rating. That being said, however, if 2006 turns against the national GOP, being in a heavily Democratic state, it may be too much for him. The only way he can win is if he can rally significant exurban and suburban voters in the Baltimore area against O'Malley. This article indicates that his work is cut out for him.
