Charlie Cook's
latest rankings (PDF):
SOLID
361 seats
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
District Representative PVI
CO-03 John Salazar R+6
IL-17 OPEN (Evans) D+5
KS-03 Dennis Moore R+4
LA-02 Bill Jefferson D+28
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+13
OH-13 OPEN (Brown) D+6
OR-05 Darlene Hooley D+1
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth R+10
UT-02 Jim Matheson R+17
WA-02 Rick Larsen D+3
10 Democrats
0 Republicans
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
District Representative PVI
GA-08 Jim Marshall R+3
GA-12 John Barrow D+5
IL-08 Melissa Bean R+5
IA-03 Leonard Boswell D+1
LA-03 Charlie Melancon R+5
OH-06 OPEN (Strickland) D+0
SC-05 John Spratt R+6
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+18
VT-AL Open (Sanders) D+9
WV-01 Alan Mollohan R+6
10 Democrats
0 Republicans
DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
None
REPUBLICAN TOSS UP
District Representative PVI
AZ-08 Open (Kolbe) R+1
CO-07 OPEN (Beauprez) D+2
CT-02 Rob Simmons D+8
CT-04 Chris Shays D+5
FL-22 Clay Shaw D+4
IL-06 OPEN (Hyde) R+3
IN-08 John Hostettler R+9
IN-09 Mike Sodrel R+7
IA-01 Open (Nussle) D+5
KY-04 Geoff Davis R+12
NM-01 Heather Wilson D+2
NC-11 Charles Taylor R+7
OH-18 Bob Ney R+6
PA-06 Jim Gerlach D+2
14 Republicans
0 Democrats
LEAN REPUBLICAN
District Representative PVI
AZ-05 J.D. Hayworth R+4
CA-11 Richard Pombo R+3
CT-05 Nancy Johnson D+4
IN-02 Chris Chocola R+4
KY-03 Anne Northup D+2
MN-06 OPEN (Kennedy) R+5
NV-03 Jon Porter D+1
NH-01 Jeb Bradley R+0
NH-02 Charlie Bass D+3
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson R+1
NY-20 John Sweeney R+3
NY-24 OPEN (Boehlert) R+1
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R+5
OH-01 Steve Chabot R+1
OH-15 Deborah Pryce R+1
PA-07 Curt Weldon D+4
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick D+3
PA-10 Don Sherwood R+8
VA-02 Thelma Drake R+6
WA-08 Dave Reichert D+2
WI-08 OPEN (Green) R+4
21 Republicans
0 Democrats
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
District Representative PVI
CA-04 John Doolittle R+11
CA-50 Brian Bilbray R+5
CT-04 Marylin Musgrave R+9
FL-08 Ric Keller R+3
FL-09 OPEN (Bilirakis) R+4
FL-13 OPEN (Harris) R+4
FL-16 Mark Foley R+2
ID-01 OPEN (Otter) R+19
IL-10 Mark Kirk D+4
IL-11 Jerry Weller R+1
IA-02 Jim Leach D+7
KY-02 Ron Lewis R+13
MN-01 Gil Gutknecht R+1
NV-02 OPEN (Gibbons) R+8
NY-19 Sue Kelly R+1
NY-25 James Walsh D+3
TX-22 OPEN (DeLay) R+15
WY-AL Barbara Cubin R+19
18 Republicans
0 Democrats
Update: For those who are asking for what this all means ... First, what does PVI mean? Charlie Cook's explanation:
That's why we at the Cook Political Report developed the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) which takes the two major party vote (another words excludes independents) for the 2000 and 2004 presidential election and measures the difference between the presidential election vote in those two combined elections and the country as a whole, in those two elections. Since different candidates for House, Senate, governor, etc are running in different districts, this is the only way to measure apples and apples.
So a PVI of D+2 would mean that the district voted 2 percent more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
And for those who want math, I'll steal from Mimikatz in the comments:
Dems currently have 202 seats. Of these, 182 are solid, 10 are likely and 10 are lead D. Dems have no toss-ups.
The R's have 234 seats (one seat is cavant, IIRC) and of their seats, 179 are solid, 18 are likely R, 21 lean R, and 14 are toss-ups.
We need 15 seats.