U. S. policy options in the Middle East seem to be causght on the horns of a dilemna in which neither force nor negotiations offer much promise of attaining the desired results. The tragedy of the situation is that much of our difficulties are a result of poor leadership. Follow my logic below the fold.
Immediately after September 11, the U. S. had enormous sympathy. No one disputed our right to take strong action against Bin Laden. Then the decision was made to invade Iraq and take down Saddam Hussien. The action was sold to the U. S. public as a pre-emptive strike to prevent Saddam from obtaining weapons of mass destruction, and a means of fostering democracy in the region. However, much of the world (and a substantial minority of our own citizens) perceived it as being all about oil. Within the Muslim community, it was seen as anti-Islamic.
The results, even assuming good intentions, have been a disaster. Over 2500 U. S. servicemen killed, along with untold Iraqis. An ongoing insurgency operates in a mileu of nascent civil war. And debt is piled upon debt to pay for it all.
Thus we see that force does not equate to strong leadership, at least as used in Iraq. We are bogged down with no clear way forward and no good way out. And that has terrible implications for our ability to negotiate, not only in Iraq, but all around the world. For why should anyone take our diplomacy seriosly, when we so obviously are unprepared to act in any forceful way? That very fact encourages mischief making by those who seek to advance their interests at our expense.
Looking back, we can clearly see that George W. Bush has been a weak leader, rather than the strong leader his PR people would have you believe. A strong leader would have continued to use diplomacy for a longer period, using the time to make the political and moral case for the use of force if it came to that. A strong leader, moreover, would not have shrank from asking the public to make some sacrifices, including such things as additional taxes and a draft, to put the country on a footing to take direct action if that were necessary.
Or, as a previous leader, who really was strong, put it: Speak softly, and carry a big stick.