Lebanon at fault?
In the past week or so, Israel has gone on the offensive against Hezbollah and has taken Lebanon and its people hostage. The Lebanese infrastructure is in shambles. Just today, bombs hit the transmission towers for telephone and television, including Hezbollah's Al-Manar and the privately run New TV. Thousands of Israeli bombs have fallen on Lebanese homes, roads, bridges, ports, broadcasting towers and even a lighthouse. Nearly 300 people, mainly civilians, have been killed, and many more have been displaced.
Follow me below the fold...
Israel certainly has a right to defend herself against attacks, but the world community also has the right to point out her follies in this matter. Whether Israel is overreacting to the
abduction of two soldiers, which have been the trigger for these recent attacks, is not really the question I'm asking. What I want to know is how the world community would react to a Lebanese retaliation after receiving the brunt of these attacks. Are they permitted to "overreact" as well, whether or not it is justified?
The details of this Lebanese retaliation would no doubt involve one or several of her neighbors, since the current state of the Lebanese military is sub par.
(T)he Lebanese Armed Forces does not seem to be taking any noticeable action to defend the nation from the military campaign against it (since the army does not have any anti-aircraft missiles). Media reports indicate that some Lebanese military facilities as well as LAF personnel have been struck by Israeli bombardment.
The Air Force has no aircraft to counter the Israeli Air Force with. The Army does have anti-aircraft guns which have not fired on the Israelis.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend
Enter Iran and Syria. Both countries have a couple things in common: they want the annihilation Israel. And what better way to do that than to defend an Islamic state under attack. The second commonality is Hezbollah, the current target of Israeli wrath.
Lebanon may not have to do much for Iran and/or Syria to jump into the fray in defense of Hezbollah. The passage of time, increasing destruction, and the sight of the suffering of more Muslims at the hands of Westerners certainly assures that one of these governments will intervene, and make it an Iranian/Israel or Syrian/Israel War. More likely, a military intervention would involve both these reluctant allies:
(G)eopolitics has brought Iran and Syria together despite many differences...(T)he two nations banded together against Saddam's Iraq, which both saw as an immediate threat to their security. Israel, too, provided a common foe. Iran's revolutionary ideology saw Israel as anathema; Syria also opposed the Jewish state, especially after its humiliating defeat in the 1967 war, since when it has strived to regain the Golan Heights. The United States is hostile to both regimes, producing further incentive to cooperate. Both countries worry that the chaos in Iraq will creep across their borders, but they're also keen for the United States to suffer a bloody nose to dampen its enthusiasm for regime change. Finally, both nations have few allies, making the other's support especially valuable.
Common enemies? Israel. . US. .
Opportunity for revenge? .
Moreover, Iran is the puppet master behind Hezbollah to a certain extent; the latter often consults with the former in matters involving the Jewish state. Indeed, Iran uses Hezbollah to influence the Israeli-Arab struggle, a role it considers
vital to maintaining its self-image as the world's defender of Muslims.
Opportunity for superhero status? .
Or Lebanon can take the initiative and reach out to Iran or Syria. Much has been said about the relations between this triangle over the years. Earlier this year, Iran was urging the expansion of ties with Lebanon. Would these include military ties? Who knows. We've already described the strange bedfellows relationship that exist between Syria and Iran. As for Lebanon and Syria, the latter is suspected in the assassination of the former prime minister Hariri in Beirut last year after which Syria ended its nearly three-decade domination of the country. Furthermore,
New parliamentary elections swept anti-Syrian politicians into government.
So I don't expect those two to make up anytime soon. But, Lebanon is weak and its government has been effectively marginalized by Hezbollah.
The government is deeply divided, reflecting the country's fractious population. Many of Lebanon's leaders--including the president and the speaker of parliament--are seen as puppets of Damascus, and the parliament is split between an anti-Syria coalition and a pro-Syria alliance. (...)
(T)he Lebanese leaders are "unnerved by the challenge of the Israelis and depressed by the amount of damage to the infrastructure and the country's image as a summer tourism destination."
Time and war breeds larger war
So what will happen, especially if this Israeli aggression drags on? One thing of which we can be assured is that the Lebanese government will do nothing
The government will welcome a ceasefire being imposed, but they don't see themselves as able to bring it about. They see themselves as weak relative to Syria. And Israel. In the end, the Lebanese government won't make the final decisions.
International efforts will have to focus on the real decision makers to bring peace again to the Lebanese people. Enter Iran and Syria, ready to force the decision on them.
The suspense is killing me.