As the last primary stretch nears, with summer in its second half, tons of competitive and important primaries are nearing. Most of these are primaries for safe congressional seats, so a lot of members of the next Congress will be decided over the next two months.
Read the entire roundup below the fold...
Oklahoma 05 - Republicans - July 25; runoff if necessary on August 22
This conservative Oklahoma City-based seat (with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of 62% Republican) is one of those primaries flying under the radar because of the whole Lieberman/Lamont situation, but it is just as interesting. Lt. Governor Mary Fallin and Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett are in a tight race for the GOP nomination with a few other minor candidates. I don't expect either to get 50% on Tuesday, mandating an August 22 runoff that would be fairly close.
Tennessee Senate - Republicans - August 3
While the Democrats have chosen Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the Republicans are still divided between Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary. Corker has money, the other two have more solid conservative support.
Tennessee 01 - Republicans - August 3
Like Oklahoma-05, the GOP primary will determine the victory in this 64% Republican East Tennessee seat. The field looks wide open, so I will make no predictions.
Tennessee 09 - Democrats - August 3
This Memphis district is 68% Democratic and majority-black, and there is a huge field. African-American interest groups worry that with only one white candidate, the black vote could be split, electing State Senator Steve Cohen. In any case, the primary will be close here.
Colorado 05 - Republicans - August 8
Some contend that Democrat Jay Fawcett has a chance in this 66% Republican Colorado Springs-area seat, but I maintain that the GOP primary will decide this conservative district. James Dobson-backed State Senator Doug Lamborn seems the favorite to me, but I might be wrong.
Colorado 07 - Democrats - August 8
This is one of the only House primaries in this diary that will have a competitive general election. Republicans are united behind former state official Rick O'Donnell, but Democrats have a tough primary between former State Senator Ed Perlmutter and former State Rep. Peggy Lamm. Either one faces a tight race to November in a 52% Democratic (i.e. swingy) suburban Denver district.
Connecticut Senate - Democrats - August 8
Need I say anything more about this?
Georgia 04 runoff - Democrats - August 8
I firmly believe Rep. Cynthia McKinney will be the first incumbent member of Congress to be unseated in a primary this year (although she and Lieberman may lose on the same night). She barely edged past DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson on July 18, and incumbents rarely recover from that. Johnson will probably barely win on the 8th and then win a landslide in November in this safely Democratic, majority-black suburban district.
Nevada 02 - Republicans - August 15
This district covers all of Nevada north of Las Vegas. It is 58% Republican and not friendly turf for any Democrat (well, except maybe for Reno). The GOP primary seems competitive between Dawn Gibbons, wife of the incumbent Congressman, State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, and Secretary of State Dean Heller. Gibbons has the most name recognition, Heller the most money. I don't see Angle winning.
Florida 11 - Democrats - September 5
The 60% Democratic Tampa Bay district is one of two interesting Florida primaries. Everybody is betting on Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor, daughter of the 2004 Senate nominee, to win, with State Senator Les Miller is expected to come in second.
Florida 13 - Republicans - September 5
Though just 54% Republican, I don't see much of a chance for Democrats in Katherine Harris-land. It's just not the right environment on the Gulf Coast. The primary here has gotten little coverage. Will it be the wealthy Vern Buchanan, the connected Tramm Hudson or Mark Flanagan, or one of the two female State Reps?
Arizona 08 - Both - September 12
A competitive November race is brewing in this marginal (51% Republican) southern Arizona district. The Democrats are leading toward State Senator Gabrielle Giffords, while I expect Republicans to narrowly nominate State Rep. Steve Huffman, backed by retiring Congressman Kolbe. Still, will the anti-immigration insurgent conservative vote lead to a victory for Randy Graf?
Maryland Senate - Democrats - September 12
What was supposed to be a lock for Rep. Ben Cardin now looks tight between he and former Rep. Kweisi Mfume. With a ton of "spoiler" candidates, one of two things will happen. Either the anti-establishment vote is split, and Cardin wins, or the "white suburbanite" vote is split, and Mfume wins. Your guess is as good as mine.
Maryland 03 - Democrats - September 12
This sprawling suburban district, 57% Democratic with no strong GOP candidate, should stay blue, but who wins? There are a lot of good Democrats running here, from Baltimore Health Commissioner Peter Beilenson to attorney John Sarbanes (son of Senator Sarbanes) to State Senator Paula Hollinger. I expect one of those three to win, and with all the major candidates being from Baltimore County, I bet that GOP-leaning Anne Arundel County actually decides the winner of the Dem primary.
Minnesota 05 - Democrats - September 12
State Rep. Keith Ellison was endorsed by the DFL but is crumbling due to scandal involving parking tickets or something like that. He starts with an edge due to being a radically liberal firebrand with a grassroots following, but if he keeps getting bad press it could help Mike Erlandson or Ember Reichgott Junge (?). In the end, it doesn't matter, as this Minneapolis seat is a whopping 71% Democratic.
New York 11 - Democrats - September 12
Okay, I take back the "whopping". This majority-black Brooklyn seat is whopping, with a PVI of...90% Democratic. Like Tennessee-09, some black interest groups worry about a split vote, but it seems less likely here. I bet on either NYC Councilwoman Yvette Clark, Chris Owens (son of the retiring Congressman), or Spitzer-endorsed State Senator Carl Andrews to carry the day.
Massachusetts Governor - Democrats - September 19
This was originally Attorney General Tom Reilly's to lose, but my money is now on progressive favorite Deval Patrick. Whoever it is should be favored in November.
Hawaii 02 - September 23
This will be the last primary in the nation, other than Louisiana and the four reconfigured Texas districts. This 60% Democratic seat covers the outskirts of Honolulu and all the rural islands of Hawaii. Again there is a huge field without a clear frontrunner. But I would bet on either former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono or former State Sen. Matt Matsunaga, due to both having great name recognition. Whoever wins will be more liberal than Rep. Case. Oh, and re: the Senate race, I'm betting on an easy Akaka win.
Your thoughts for the whole diary? Any predictions on these primaries?
UPDATE: The Rhode Island Senate GOP primary is apparently hotter than I thought. Predictions, anyone?