'Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Rice over the weekend that Israel would need 10 to 14 more days to finish its offensive, and Justice Minister Haim Ramon told Army Radio on Monday that he did not think the fighting was yet over.'
'"I'm convinced that we won't finish this war until it's clear that Hezbollah has no more abilities to attack Israel from south Lebanon. This is what we are striving for," Ramon said.'
(source: Forbes)
We've seen this story before, only it was 2003 and the U.S. was just about to invade Iraq. What's missing, of course, is the prediction that the Israeli liberators would be greeted with flowers. In its place we have a sort of concern for the Lebanese government not being able to "control" the southern portion of the country. And, to a large degree, this is true -- Hizbullah operates there with a degree of autonomy. So, instead of America freeing the Iraqis from the menace of Hussein, the Israelis are freeing the Lebanese from the menace of Hizbullah. A sentiment echoed in the language used by the Bush Administration when discussing the issue.
Of course I believe that the 10 - 14 day prediction falls far short of what would be required to achieve the objective stated. As it is Hizbullah seems to fire rockets into northern Israel with impunity, and this despite over a week of steady bombing and Israeli ground attacks. Does anyone else really believe that this can be concluded militarily in 10 to 14 days? At the rate things are progressing, it won't be Hizbullah that concerns Israel. Instead, they may face a broader conflict as Egypt, Syria, Iran, and others in the region begin to provide support to Lebanon.
Of course while the United States talks the game of going to the U.N. the word on the street is that the U.S. would like to see a confrontation between Israel and Syria. A couple of days ago I wrote about Bush's remarks regarding the U.N. But what happens in the meantime? Perhaps in this case going to the U.N. isn't just a move for political cover, but to also hold off the international community while Israel "finishes" the job in Lebanon. And so the mark has been set -- the offensive should only last another 10 to 14 days. The countdown begins now; and I'll be most surprised if it turns out to be true.