For the sake of future redistricting (and good government), we need to find specific state races where we can either help the Dems to take complete control of all branches of a state's government, or stop the R's from having complete control.
In many states, either the R's or the D's are very close to having complete control of both houses of the legislature and holding the governor's office, but control in many hoses in many states is VERY close. With complete control, a party holds the power to run the state, and to draw congressional and legislative boundary lines When states re-drew congressional boundaries after the 2000 census, frankly, the R's took us to the cleaners. In Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, then later in Texas and Georgia, the districts were so gerrymandered that the Dems have won far fewer seats than they would have won with fair boundaries. In short, post-2000 gerrymandering has enabled Rep control of congress.
Take Florida, for example. We all know Florida is nearly 50% dem. Yet the R's hold an 18-7 margin in the congressional delegation. Similarly, in Michigan, a state that has voted Dem for President in each of the last four elections, had a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators, the R's hold a 9-6 margin in congressional seats. And in Pennsylvania, another state that leans Democratic (but has been close), the R's margin is 12-7.
My Call for Action: Let's identify and focus on a few competitive state office races where victory either will allow the Dems to gain control of the whole state or will stop the R's from holding complete control.
Even setting aside a possible rush to re-draw districts in the wake of last week's Supreme Court decision upholding Tom Delay's re-districting in Texas, first-time winners in 2006 of a four-year office will have the power of incumbency in 2010 and will be favored. In the list below, I have tried only to include states that are large enough to matter (4+ congressional seats), that have political redistricting, and that I think have state elections this year. I do not know much about the local races in most states, and ask for comments to identify a few specific close races where we can help the Dem candidate.
Here are the places where I believe we need to focus. The numbers after the state names show which party controls the house, then the senate, the margin of each one, and the party of the current Governor. (Some numbers may not reflect recent off-year changes. Sorry. happy to update.)
COLORADO: H 35-30 Dem S 18-17 Dem Gov: Rep.
Colorado is a state where the Dems did very well in 2004, taking both houses. We need to hang on to both and to take the governor's race, where current polls show a very tight race. Latest Rasmussen poll has Dem Ritter leading Rep Beauprez by 43% to 38%. Can someone suggest competitive house and senate seats where time and small donations would help?
FLORIDA: H 84-36 Rep. S 26-14 Rep. Gov: Rep.
In this toss-up state, due to gerrymandering, the Reps have an 18-7 edge in congressional representatives and massive leads in state houses. The Governor's race is close though. My average of the most recent polls from Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, and Quinnipiac have Crist (R) leading Davis (D) by six points, 45-39. Whether Davis (or Democrat Smith) wins, he will have a leg up in 2010. If the Reps win, they will. We need a governor to stop partisan redistricting.
MICHIGAN: R 58-52 R 22-16 Gov: Dem
We have a real shot of taking everything with a good year. A gain of three seats in either house would give a tie, four a majority. But recent polls also show Gov Granholm in trouble. The most recent Rasmussen gives her a two point lead, with the trend against her. This should be a fight across the board. Can someone give some ideas of some competitive house and senate seats to target?
MINNESOTA: R 68-66 D 38-29 Gov: Rep.
We need two seats to take the house. And the most recent Rasmussen poll has incumbent Pawlenty (R) trailing Hatch (D) 47%-42%. Minnesota also has a hot senate race and 2-3 hot house races, so it's a big year there. We need the Gov's race. Can someone give some ideas of competitive seats to target in the house and senate?
OHIO R 61-38 R 22-11 Gov: Rep.
In this toss-up state, due to gerrymandering, the Reps have an 12-6 edge in congressional representatives and large leads in state seats. We need to win the Gov's race. Current polls look good for Strickland against Blackwell, but count on Blackwell bringing out the far right.
NEW YORK D 105-45 R 35-27 Gov: Rep.
Spitzer will take the governor's race. We need to gain five senate seats. Are there particular ones to target? (BTW, Spitzer opposes partisan re-districting.)
PENNSYLVANIA R 110-93 R 30-20 Gov: Dem
Polls look good for Rendell's reelection as governor. Latest Rasmussen has him leading Swann (R) 50%-36%. PA also has a big race for Senate and several big house races. Are there specific state house and senate races we should target?
TENNESSEE D 53-46 R 17-16 Gov: Dem
Dems need to take a senate seat and hold on to the governor's seat. Gov Bresden (D) appears to be well on the way to reelection. Are there senate seats to target?
WISCONSIN R 60-39 R 19-14 Gov: Dem
We need Gov. Doyle reelected. Are there senate seats to target?
That's my list. Can others suggest specific races? With a target list, the netroots can help our candidates from afar with small contributions (which go a long way in small races) and locals can volunteer time.
