I'm sorry to do this, but I'm repeating myself from yesterday. The carter camp is trying to do a big fund-raising push by tomorrow's primary election, and this diary didn't get the kind of traction I hoped it might yesterday, so I'm trying it at a different time of day on a "non-weekend" day. For those of you who read it yesterday, please don't scream and fuss...I wouldn't normally do this. But we need some momentum in $$ & potential volunteers, and after what was accomplished in Conneticut I am now certain that anything is possible. For those of you who follow polls, a recent poll from Mason-Dixon had some less attractive results within the last couple days, but I still feel like this is very competitive and a great opportunity, so please read what I have to say if you haven't already, and consider giving some time or money to Jack Carter's campaign.
Hey Guys,
I want to just start by saying that I don't work for the Carter campaign, or for any PAC or Democratic Party organization. I'm not experienced with politics, and I am relatively new at blogging. I'm just a 28 year old citizen who started to care a lot more about his government after it was hijacked by the far right wing fringe of the Republican party and they proceded to fundamentally change the America I grew up in. For that reason, I got a lot more involved in politics and want to be a part of changing this country state by state, district by district, and precinct by precinct.
stevelungrin's diary :: ::
I moved to Nevada almost a year ago to the day. I came from Nebraska and the political climate here is vastly different. Nevada is flying under the radar of the media for its position as a critical swing state. But make no mistake my friends, it is a VERY competitive state, and has enormous potential to be turned true blue.
Here are a couple things we have going for us:
Population changes since 1990 according to the U.S. Census Bureau... http://factfinder.census.gov/.... :
2005 2000 1990
Population 2,414,807 1,998,257 1,201,833
That's right....almost 500,000 new residents since John Ensign last campaigned for office. How many registered voters did we gain?
According to the Nevada Secretary of State's Web Site... http://sos.state.nv.us/....
http://sos.state.nv.us/.... :
2000
941,031 Total Registered Voters
Democrat (389,504) Republican (388,166) Independent/other/Lieberman for Conneticuit (163,361)
2006
1,205,750 Total Registered Voters
Democrat (485,378) Republican (475,019)
Independent/other/Lieberman for Conneticuit (245,353)
Not only have we gained over a quarter million new registered voters, we have netted a 10 thousand voter advantage over the republicans in that time. Now consider the terrible "buyer's remorse" that a lot of democrats have now after voting for Bush in either 2000 or 2004, and assume that if the discontent continues that independents will trend our way (there are over 80,000 new voters in the "Other" category) we have a VERY GOOD shot at this seat.
More proof you ask....how about some polling numbers. In a diary a few weeks ago (http://www.dailykos.com/...) by Sarah Carter (Jack's Daughter) Jack has moved up 5 points since January and Ensign has dropped 7, and also dropped below the "safe" 50% mark.
Polling Data
Rasmussen 7/31/2006. Likely voters MoE 4.5 (numbers from January in parentheses)
Ensign 46% (53%)
Carter 39% (34%)
some other candidate 4% (7%)
not sure 11% (6%)
Now, currently the trend is in Jack's favor because of some wisely spent dollars, some TIRELESS hard work canvassing the whole state (including the hundreds and hundreds of square miles with nothing but Joshua trees, mesas, sand, and cacti), and the state's disapproval of Bush and his congressional enablers. We can keep this moving his direction if we stay focused on it. According to Sarah Carter's Diary, Nevada as a state holds only a 38% approval rating of Dubya, and that is the lowest of any state that he carried in '04. Also according to the Carter camp's researchers, Ensign has supported Bush's policies 96% in 2006, 98% in 2005, and 100% in 2004. If Jack's Campaign has the money, it will be very easy to link Ensign to Bush through television & radio ads.
However, the best thing about the race in Nevada is that it is largely off the radar screen of everybody "important". Larry Sabato with the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/....) still has it listed as "Solid Republican" even several weeks after Ensign dropped below 50% and Carter drew within 7 points. Nobody in the national media is paying attention (which I consider a good thing), and I think that Ensign and the RNC, and the RNSC are all pretty cocky about it. Since Jack is Jimmy Carter's son, he has the ability to bust through the gates with name recognition very quickly and the race could turn VERY competitive VERY fast, and the Ensign camp could be caught with their pants down.
To conclude, there are a thousand reasons why this is an important race. Among others, I'd say that it is likely that we will pick up PA, RI, MO, MT, & OH this year in the U.S. Senate (although we still have plenty of work to do to get it done), but that still only leaves us at a 50/50 tie, and allows Dick Cheney to be the deciding vote. If we do nothing else this year, we NEED the Senate back so that we can prevent Bush from nominating any other life-long judges to either the federl courts or the Supreme Court. The fallout from those judges lasts far longer than any rotten elected republican official does. Jack Carter represents one of our very best, and most under-cover opportunities to do just that. Also, if we make this a competitive race, the RNC & NRCC will have no choice but to give assistance to a candidate that they assumed was safe, and that means less money for other races that are close. Right now the only two advantages that Ensign has over Jack Carter are incumbency and money. We can turn his incumbency against him for his rubberstamping of the Bush administration, but we need your help with the money. Please consider giving something to Jack's campaign even if it is $10. It would be good solid money spent on a real opportunity to change this country for the better. Our primary election is on Tuesday and Jack is hoping to have a strong fund-raising showing leading up to it, so please visit his campaign site and donate $10, $20, $30, or even $100 if you believe in him like I do. The address is:
http://www.carterfornevada.com/
Also, they could probably use voluteers all over the state (since it encompasses such a large area) so if you are disinterested in your own state's senate race because your candidate has it in the bag (like Diane Feinstein in CA) or because he doesn't have a prayer (like Pete Ashdown in UT), and your state happens to border Nevada (like CA & UT) feel free to contact the Carter campaign... http://www.carterfornevada.com/.... ...or the Nevada Democratic Party....http://www.nvdems.com ...and see if they need any help canvasing, phonebanking, sending out mailers, or organizing rallies. This is the real thing folks....Help us send Jack Carter to the United States Senate and send one of the worst Bush appologists to the unemployment office. Thanks!!