Right now, Sen. Lieberman is on the political ropes. But as Harold MacMillan once observed, a week is a long time in politics. And five months is an eternity. It's just possible that come next January Joe Lieberman will emerge as the most important man in Washington, at least temporarily. Here's a scenario, out of the political science fiction files:
Today the name Sen. Jeffords is the answer to a trivia quiz. But 5 years ago Jeffords was the axis upon which the political orobit spun at least for several news cycles.
After the 2000 elections the Republicans and Democrats were virtually tied in the U.S. Senate, with V.P. Cheney holding the deciding swing vote, in his institutional role as Senate President. Then, in the late spring of 2001, Jeffords, a moderate Republican from New England, announced, with much fanfare, that he was switching parties. Republicans and conversative commentaters responded angrily (the NY Post ran a front page headline: "Benedict Jeffords", claiming that Jeffords was changing parties just for his own ambitions and because he was upset the White House wasn't returning his phonecalls. Jeffords said he was doing it because Bush was turning out to be a far more ideologically conservative president than presidential candidate, and because he felt the White House was insufficiently respectful of Congress's institutional role in the governing process. Jeffords, history has shown us, was the proverbial canary in the coalmine.
With this fairly recent Senatorial party-switching precedent in mind, fast foward now to the fall elections and their potential aftermath. Maybe the Democrats or the Republicans will win outright control of the Senate, or maybe they will emerge with a split, with Lieberman getting re-elected as a nominal independent. All of a sudden Lieberman will hold the balance of power in his hands. Lieberman has recently stated he intends to vote to retain Harry Reid as Majority Leader, but that would be five months from now. An eternity, as they say.
In the meantime the NY Times reported last week that one of the first condolence calls Lieberman received last Wednesday was from Karl Rove. Perhaps it was an innocent social call, but there's something about Karl Rove and phone calls that tends to bring out the Oliver Stone in one. Who's to say the White House isn't already looking ahead to a possible stalemated Senate next January, with Lieberman an "independent"? The White House and Senate Republicans have a lot to offer Lieberman: access to GOP contributors, the committee charimanships of his choice, ideological companionship, an open spigot of federal spending in Connecticut, (The submarine base at New London is sure to drop off the endangered military base list, the chance to get even with the antiwar extremist bloggers who embarrassed him last summer. One can almost hear Lieberman's speech justifying his decision to justify his decision now: "I didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me..."
Is this likely to happen? Perhaps not. Is it possible it could happen? Probably, given the state of politics today. Of couse, one sure way to prevent would be to be sure the Democrats win a clear majority in November.