Rumors abound that the Q-poll will show a huge blowout lead for Lamont. Rumors are rumors, so believe or not until you see the actual poll results. I don't believe the rumors, for whatever it's worth.
But the word is that Lamont's internal numbers show their guy with a narrow lead, while Lieberman's own numbers show him with a narrow lead. Split the difference, and this race is tied, no matter what the Q-poll might say.
Ultimately, these polls will spit out results based on a particular turnout model, and no one really knows what turnout will look like for an unprecedented August primary in this state. But at the end of the day, whose turnout model will you trust most -- I'm going with the two campaigns on the ground and have the best intelligence about what turnout might look like.
Some might think I'm dampening expectations. I'm not. I'll be interested in the trend lines of this poll, since momentum can be measured fairly accurately whether the turnout model is good or not. But if we do see some big blowout numbers, it doesn't necessarily mean we've got this thing in the bag.
Lieberman is hiring 4,000 people (including New Jersey College Republicans) to work the ground for him. He's got the Republican Noise Machine working on his behalf (Coulter, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc. See this video for a partial list). The people running the field are old pros. They're good. They may be f'ing up the job, but we're better off assuming they won't. They'll certainly have the necessary resources to execute.
Lamont will ultimately spend about 1/3rd of what Lieberman is spending. That's less money for media and less money for field. Now, Lamont doesn't need as many ads because his are so much better, and he doesn't need as much for field because people actually want to work for Lamont for free.
But let's not pat ourselves in the back if this Q-Poll comes out looking like a blowout, because it's not. The only prediction anyone can make at this point is that regardless what the polls say, the candidate who doesn't get his people to the polls will be the candidate who loses.
Update: I edited out a reference to Quinnipiac being based in Pennsylvania because they are, in fact, based in Connecticut.