I want you to go through all the pockets in your clothes closet, today. I want you to lift up the cushions on the sofa. I want you to dig under the car seats. I want you to sift through the lint at the bottom of your handbags. I want you to come up with about 5 bucks in loose change, today, and send it in to one of the 35 Democratic candidates who are running in competitive races.
The most recent (August 16th) Cook's Report lists 35 House seats that are either toss-ups (either party could win) or that are leaning Republican but are by no means assured a Republican victory. It lists another 11 seats that are leaning, but not assured, Democratic. In all, there are 46 campaigns that could really, really use some money from us.
What for you ask?
Well, for one thing ...for the main thing ...Republicans are going to go all out to smear the Democratic candidates in these races; the Republicans are desperate, and when they get desperate they get especially mean and especially aggressive. (They don't call 'em WASPs for nothing!) And dishonest -- don't forget dishonest. As we all know, the only way to fight back is to counter hard and counter quickly, and that takes money. When the Democrats can run a clean race and stay on message, we win. But we need to put the
swift into swiftboating; if we accomplish nothing else but enabling a quick response to counter Republican lies, we'll have done well. Besides. Nothing pisses us off more than watching the Republican Smear-ometer go off the dial, with nothing but white noise and crickets coming back in response.
We may not be able to out-fundraise the Republicans. That's OK -- we don't have to. We just have to pull together enough to run effective campaigns. And the good news is, it is not futile. Not this time. Today's Washington Post notes that the latest FEC filings show Democratic candidates are significantly better-funded than they've been in the past, against incumbent Republicans (Bolds are my emphasis):
In a year of bad omens for the GOP, the latest batch of disclosure forms filed with the Federal Election Commission offers one more: Incumbency no longer means that embattled Republican representatives can expect to overwhelm weakly funded Democratic challengers with massive spending on advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts. [snip]
These [Republican] incumbents still boast a clear fundraising edge, but it is much less pronounced than in years past. According to calculations made from FEC data, the Democratic challengers in these races have raised about 60 percent of what their opponents have collected and have about the same percentage of cash on hand.
At this point in the 2004 election cycle, by contrast, Cook listed nine Republican incumbents as similarly vulnerable. Their Democratic opponents had been able to raise 42 percent of what their opponents collected, and challengers' cash on hand was a lower percentage. There were similar disparities in the 2002 cycle.
Of this year's 27 most vulnerable incumbents, 14 face challengers who have raised at least $1 million, according to FEC reports. At this point in 2004, no Democratic challenger had raised $1 million. What's more, all but one of the 27 Democratic challengers has raised at least $400,000 -- a figure that many election experts consider a minimum price of entry for candidates hoping to mount a credible campaign. Taking into account all House races, 36 Democratic challengers have cleared the $400,000 threshold.
We've got our work cut out for us, but we know what to do: getting the easiest out of the way first, get that lone under-$400,000 Democratic challenger up to speed. Second on the list but most important, target those Republican "toss-up" races hard; we only need to win 15 seats to take back a majority of the House -- and there are 17 in the Cook's Report Republican toss-up column!:
Republican Toss-ups:
AZ-08 OPEN (Kolbe) R+1
CO-07 OPEN (Beauprez) D+2
CT-02 Rob Simmons D+8
CT-04 Chris Shays D+5
FL-22 Clay Shaw D+4
IL-06 OPEN (Hyde) R+3
IN-02 Chris Chocola R+4
IN-08 John Hostettler R+9
IN-09 Mike Sodrel R+7
IA-01 OPEN (Nussle) D+5
KY-04 Geoff Davis R+12
NM-01 Heather Wilson D+2
NY-24 OPEN (Boehlert) R+1
NC-11 Charles Taylor R+7
OH-18 OPEN (Ney) R+6
PA-06 Jim Gerlach D+2
VA-02 Thelma Drake R+6
Third, we target the seats that are leaning Democratic but are not assured of victory -- let's not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory:
Leaning (but not assured) Democrat
GA-08 Jim Marshall R+3
GA-12 John Barrow D+5
IL-08 Melissa Bean R+5
IA-03 Leonard Boswell D+1
LA-03 Charlie Melancon R+5
OH-06 OPEN (Strickland) D+0
SC-05 John Spratt R+6
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+18
TX-22 OPEN (DeLay) R+15
VT-AL OPEN (Sanders) D+9
WV-01 Alan Mollohan R+6
And finally, we target the seats that are leaning Republican, but where Democrats have a real shot at winning:
Leaning (but not assured) Republican
AZ-05 J.D. Hayworth R+4
CA-11 Richard Pombo R+3
CT-05 Nancy Johnson D+4
KY-03 Anne Northup D+2
MN-06 OPEN (Kennedy) R+5
NV-03 Jon Porter D+1
NH-01 Jeb Bradley R+0
NH-02 Charlie Bass D+3
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson R+1
NY-20 John Sweeney R+3
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R+5
OH-01 Steve Chabot R+1
OH-15 Deborah Pryce R+1
PA-07 Curt Weldon D+4
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick D+3
PA-10 Don Sherwood R+8
WA-08 Dave Reichert D+2
WI-08 OPEN (Green) R+4
Heck ...for less than $250 you can send $5 to each of the Democrats in these races!
And don't think for a minute that your little $5 won't make a difference. From today's WaPo:
Twelve of the 27 Democratic challengers in Cook's most competitive House races raised more money in the latest quarter than their GOP opponents.
One of those 12 is former Vice Adm. Joe Sestak, a 31-year Navy veteran whose candidacy in Pennsylvania's 7th District in suburban Philadelphia is being driven in large measure by his opposition to the Iraq war. His opponent, 10-term Republican Rep. Curt Weldon, has never faced a competitive challenger, even though the Democratic presidential nominee won the district in the last three elections.
Fueled by financial success in the most recent quarter, Sestak has raised $1.1 million to Weldon's $1.4 million.
Sestak is getting support from traditional sources such as labor unions and newer ones such as the "Net roots" -- online activists who are channeling significant sums to antiwar Democrats. He has raised $230,000 online this cycle, including thousands through blogs.
Now, I'm not saying you should break open the kids' piggy banks. But for the price of a grande at Starbucks, you can make a real difference. Think of the most frivolous thing you've ever done with a five-dollar bill, pass up a pair of new flip-flops, bag a lunch for one day, give the equivalent of one-hour's salary from one week's pay, rent a movie from the oldies-but-goodies section instead of the "just-released" section, fill up your tank one gallon short of full. Whatever.
Just. Make this happen.