The Arizona 8th has been
pegged by Stuart Rothenberg as a Democratic pickup, and everyone else has it slotted as a "tossup".
And Republicans are doing everything they can to deliver the seat to us.
The retirement of 11-term centrist Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe created the possibility of a Democratic takeover in Arizona's politically competitive 8th Congressional District. And many Republican officials, including Kolbe, warned that the candidacy of conservative Randy Graf -- who ran a serious but unsuccessful challenge to the incumbent in the 2004 primary -- would put the seat more at risk.
Yet Kolbe's goal of uniting party moderates around a single opposing candidate in the Sept. 12 primary have failed, in large part because Graf has drawn two combative opponents whose rivalry appears as much personal as it is political.
The most recent polling indicates that the two -- state Rep. Steve Huffman, who has Kolbe's endorsement, and Mike Hellon, a former state Republican Party chairman and ex-Republican national committeeman -- are splitting the primary votes of Republicans who oppose Graf, and are making his nomination more likely.
The poll of likely primary voters, released last week by the Tucson Weekly, showed Graf with support of 36 percent of respondents to 13 percent for Huffman and 10 percent for Hellon.
The fact that 39 percent of respondents said they are undecided tempers any conclusion that Graf is a shoo-in for the GOP nod. And of the two other candidates, Huffman's most recent money figures suggest that he is best positioned to make a late run: As of June 30, he had $413,000 cash on hand in his campaign treasury to $51,000 for Graf and $47,000 for Hellon.
The Democrats have a much tamer primary between frontrunner Gabrielle Giffords and local anchorwoman Patty Weiss.