I sat to thinking today. What will happen if Joe Lieberman either wins as an independant, or somehow manages to pull out a win in the CT Primary. I think you will see 3 things happen:
1. Joe Lieberman will be a constant irritant. Everything he says and does will be under a microscope. Anyone he associates with will be under a microscope. Everything he does will be viewed with suspicion by a great many Democrats.
2. Because Joe Lieberman will be a constant irritation, he will in effect become an organizing tool. People will be pissed off, they will be motivated and they will want to effect change. The longer Joe Lieberman sticks around, the stronger the direct challenge to the establishment will become.
3. The pro-reform/progressive movement/netroots will not evaporate. It will endure and become stronger. Those who went out of their way to attack the netroots and progressives in order to get a short term gain will become marked men. The liklihood of progressives calling a truce and joining forces with the establishment will diminish. The long term result will be an ongoing blogswarm on this issue.
This leaves the pro-Lieberman camp in a difficult position. They are tarring themselves, they are risking their positions by making themselves the target of a reform movement. If they are seen as an obstacle to progress towards a revitalized Democratic party, they will be targeted and removed. They are going to lose a tremendous amount of influence, and that in turn is going to allow for someone else to rise up. The anti-Liberman faction isn't going to evaporate in the event of a loss, if anything it is going to become even stronger.
I would contrast this situation to a Lamont victory in the primary followed by a victory in the General or Lieberman accepting defeat. The establishment will find the netroots more than willing to come to an understanding. The key element in all of this is the Democratic establishment listen to and heed our advice when they are able.