OK so Joementum lost and is taking his ball and going home. Republicans are trying to rally around him, while the Democratic establishment thus has said all the right things in supporting Lamont.
In any case, I calculated what would happen under varying scenarios of how much of the GOP vote Lieberman gets and how much of the Lieberman vote Lamont gets if Lieberman for Lieberman remains on the ballot.
In 2004, Kerry received 54.3% of the vote in Connecticut; Bush received 44%. To start off with, I will assume that the 54.3% of the electorate which voted for Kerry in 2004 breaks down as the Democratic primary did yesterday, with Lamont receiving 52% and Lieberman the rest. Assuming all Lamont voters stay with Lamont, I than ask what percentage of the 48% of those Democratic voters who voted for Lieberman yesterday will switch to Lamont in November. Each row header represents the % of Lieberman voters switching to Lamont.
I then assume that Lamont will receive none of the 44% of votes that went to Bush in 2004, but Lieberman will. Each column header represents the % of Bush voters who did not vote yesterday but will vote for Lieberman in November.
Finally, the 1.7% of the electorate that voted for neither Bush nor Kerry in 2004 I assume will also not vote for either Lamont or Lieberman.
If the number is prefaced with a "W", it means that it's a Lamont Win; L means a Lamont loss to Lieberman. The number means the vote differential between Lamont and Lieberman.
Column: % Bush (2004) to Lieberman (November)
Row: % Lieberman (August) to Lamont (November)
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
10% W2.8 L1.6 L6.0
20% W7.8 W3.4 L1.0 L5.4
30% W8.4 W4.0 L0.4 L4.8
40% W4.6 W0.2 L4.2 L8.6
50% W5.2 W0.8 L3.6 L8.1
60% W5.7 W1.3 L3.1 L7.5
70% W6.3 W1.9 L2.5
80% W6.9 W2.5
90% W11.9 W7.5
For example, if 70% of Bush 2004's voters vote for Lieberman and 60% of yesterday's Lieberman voters vote for Lamont, Lamont wins.
For those who want to try this at home, here's the formula:
Lamont - Lieberman = ((0.52 x .543) + (A x (0.44 x .543)) - ((B x 0.44) + ((1 - A) x (0.48) x .543))
where A is the Lieberman to Lamont percentage and B is the Bush to Lieberman percentage. Hope I didn't miss a parenthesis.