Democrats have the best opportunity to win in OK-1 that they have had in years. The seat has been in Republican hands since 1987, but the national mood about the direction of the country is being mirrored in local polling.
In fact, 56% of likely voters in OK-1 are dissastified with the direction of the country. A full 40% have an unfavorable view of President Bush -- this in a state that re-elected him two years ago with 66% of the vote. If the election were held today, only 44% would support the incumbent congressman. Of the remaining, 53% would vote for either Democratic Challenger Alan Gentges or are undecided.
Another positive from recent polling is that the incumbent Democratic Gov. Brad Henry, who is on the ticket in November, has a 64% approval rating in OK-1 with 52% of those being Republicans. Gentges must tie himself to the popular Democratic governor and focus on the national issues voters are most concerned about (Iraq, terrorism, immigration and over-spending -- in that order) and Democrats will have a real opportunity in OK-1 in November.
The main thing that will keep Alan Gentges from victory in November may very well be money. Democrats in OK-1 are worn out by three unsuccessful tries against the incumbent, John Sullivan, and many who could have not yet stepped up to the plate to support Alan's campaign. Alan is on the phone daily talking about his polling and the Democrats' chances, but a groudswell of financial support has yet to appear. As a result, the campaign is trying to get national attention from DCCC, the DNC, and others to supplant the local burnout.