(Disclosure: I work part time for the Grant campaign as its blog manager.)
Six months ago, few political junkies would give Larry Grant a gnat's chance at winning the open Idaho-01 seat. Sure, he was one of the strongest Democratic candidates running in the district in years, a small-town Idaho boy who rose to become vice president of the state's largest tech company, Micron. Well-spoken, personable, fiscally conservative, moderate on social issues ... everyone agreed Larry Grant had great potential, but he also faced a steep uphill climb in his first run for public office to win a district where 69% of the voters supported Bush in 2004.
But things changed May 23, when a six-way Republican primary produced Grant's opponent, who won with just 25.8% of his field. Bill Sali's many negatives have been amply noted here and around the net; we couldn't have asked for a better outcome from the GOP. Still, nothing much seemed to be happening with the race until Dick Cheney came to town.
By midsummer, the GOP's Retain Our Majority Project ID'd the ID-01 as a possible trouble spot. Dick Cheney and Dennis Hastert were swiftly dispatched to Idaho within a week's time last month to try and prop up the unpopular Sali's chances.
On August 16, the very day of Cheney's visit, our campaign announced the formation of a Republicans for Grant group, launched by moderate Idaho Republicans and independents who could not "hold their noses" and vote for such an extreme, divisive, ineffective nominee. That was bad enough for Sali, but even worse: Only three of his colleagues from the Idaho Legislature bothered to show up and meet Cheney. Overall attendance was in the 150-200 range - for the vice president of the US - and there were two to three times that number of protesters outside. It was a bellwether day, and the start of a great month for Larry's prospects. Since then:
* Larry Grant was named a netroots-endorsed candidate on August 28. So far, 463 of you have contributed $10,337.56 to his campaign. Thanks (and please keep helping .... the Club for Growth has Sali's back, for god's sake. Let's do all we can to hand the odious CFG another defeat).
* The candidates have started talking about issues. Tax fairness is a big one here in Idaho. On Labor Day, Sali charged that Grant will raise payroll taxes (based on an answer Grant gave at Project Vote Smart on Social Security funding). Larry fired back with three blog posts about how Sali will give more tax breaks to the wealthy, saddle his grandkids with debt, and cut Social Security benefits. On top of that, Sali in August also broke faith with Idahoans by approving a radical tax shift that raises sales tax 20% to pay for property tax relief aimed mostly at corporations and wealthy out-of-state property owners.
* Idaho pollster Greg Smith released a poll last Friday that shows Grant leading Sali by 8%, though a huge pool of undecided voters and a small sample size muddied the results. Still, the fact that Sali dropped 27% from Smith's July poll, where he led Grant comfortably, was great news. We've done internal polling, too, and we're happy with the way things are going.
*Larry's first TV ad hit the airwaves this week. It's a low-key, 30-second spot in which Larry takes Congress to task for not addressing the issues. The catch line: "We need problem solvers in Congress, not problem-makers."
*We continue to build national buzz. We hear Charlie Cook cited the ID-01 last week when asked at a DC forum which race might produce the biggest Election Night 2006 surprise.
Tonight, the rest of the 53-day sprint to E-day begins as Grant and Sali meet for their first debate at North Idaho College in Coeur d'Alene. I'm on my way there now, and I'll have coverage tonight at our campaign blog.
Folks, if you've been following this race for the past month, you know momentum is building for Larry Grant. The netroots are a big part of that: every time you mention Larry's race, every time you point to Idaho as an example of the 50-state strategy's power, you help us move toward what's going to be one of the most momentous pick-ups in Democratic Party history on November 7.
Thanks to you all for everything you've done and everything you can do. (Click here to volunteer.) Here's to a great month that put Larry Grant on the political map - and to 53 days that'll help Democrats take back Congress. Working together, we can get our great country back on track.