In an interview
given to the Washington Post while he was in New York, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani requested permanent U.S. bases to, of all things, fight off Iran (and Turkey).
I think within two years we will be able to train our army and have the capacity to face terrorism. . . . The presence of American forces -- even a symbolic one -- will frighten those who are trying to interfere in our affairs.
Are you talking about Iran?
Our prime minister just came back from Iran. He got good promises from Iran on security -- promises that they will never permit any kind of interference in the internal affairs of Iraq.
Do you believe that?
Our prime minister tells me he got real and serious promises. Let us see.
[...]
Will the U.S. put bases in Kurdistan?
I think we will be in need of American forces for a long time -- even two military bases to prevent foreign interference. I don't ask to have 100,000 American soldiers -- 10,000 soldiers and two air bases would be enough. This will be [in] the interest of the Iraqi people and of peace in the Middle East.
Now, it should be noted that President Talabani doesn't just think the U.S. will put bases in Iraq, and Kurdistan especially, but he
welcomes the idea:
Would you welcome U.S. bases in Kurdistan?
Yes, they are welcome. Kurdistan wants the Americans to stay. In some places Sunnis want the Americans to stay -- Sunnis think the main danger is coming from Iran now. There is a change in the mind of the Sunnis. The Sunnis are for having good relations with America. The [Shiites] have started to think that.
Talabani continues to cite Iran here as a threat, which it most certainly is to the stability of the region, but I think it is also important to point out another potential threat to Kurdistan: Turkey.
Why is Turkey such a threat? Well, it just so happens that they have stated previously, along with Iran, that a free and independent Kurdistan would be grounds for invasion on their part. This is from back in July:
Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there - a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.
Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week.
"The government is really in a bind," said Seyfi Tashan, director of the Foreign Policy Institute at Bilkent University in Ankara. "On the one hand, they don't want things to break down with the United States. On the other hand, the public is crying for action."
[...]
Any operation was unlikely before the end of August, when the current military chief of staff is replaced by an officer widely regarded as a hard-liner, NTV said.
The Western diplomat said the Turkish military long has had plans for fighting guerrillas in northern Iraq. These range from limited artillery and airstrikes on guerrilla bases, to attacks by commando forces and a broader ground offensive.
And how real is the possibility that Kurdistan could make moves toward independence? Well, apparently they aren't the only ones in Iraq preparing for autonomy:
Iraq's fractious political parties reached a deal Sunday meant to prevent the country from splintering into a federation of three autonomous zones until at least 2008.
The agreement forestalled concerns that the debate over federalism, a vague concept enshrined in the constitution but defined differently by various political groups, could cause the country's fragile multi-sect government to collapse.
Sunni Arabs had threatened to boycott parliament over a proposal, introduced by a Shiite Muslim group this month, to create a mechanism that could carve out a predominantly Shiite region in southern Iraq, similar to the semiautonomous Kurdish zone in the north. Sunnis adamantly oppose that plan, which would leave them with a central area devoid of the oil reserves in other regions, and have pushed for a full review of the country's new constitution.
Under the compromise reached Sunday, parliament will form a 27-member committee on Monday to review the constitution and then introduce the Shiite measure on creating federal regions the following day, lawmakers said.
Keep an eye on this, because Sunni lawmakers are quickly realizing the reality of what they are facing. The Kurdish and Shiite lawmakers have the votes to pass this legislation, essentially setting the stage for federal regions to be carved out by 2008. While the Kurds appear content with their current situation, I have yet to hear a convincing argument that they won't eventually make moves toward independence. And why should they, with American bases protecting them?
That is the danger of this kind of talk, and I believe it should be something that the Bush administration is confronted with. Are we prepared to defend Kurdistan from attacks from Iran and Turkey? If the Kurds move toward full independence, will our forces fight them or defend them? Are we prepared to enter into this situation two years down the line?
The American people deserve answers: Where are the people who are supposed to be asking these questions?
(Originally posted at Deny My Freedom)