A new UNH Survey Center poll of 249 2nd District residents shows Charlie Bass leading Paul Hodes 46%-36%, with a
6.2% MOE. This is a huge improvement over the July poll which had Bass leading by 24%:
http://hosted.ap.org/...
Hodes still has very low name recognition, which should begin to go up since both candidates have begun running television ads. He was viewed favorably by 11%, unfavorably by 6%, neutral by 17%, and unknown by 66%. Bass is known by 90+% of the district's voters.
Paul still has a shot if he can produce some memorable TV ads and get more buzz in the media. NH-02 is a Dem-leaning district (Kerry won by 5%) and I think the voters in NH are ready for a change.
The NH Democratic Party has more money, is more organized, and more energized than the state Republicans. The state party has opened up 4 or 5 new campaign headquarters in the 2nd District in the past few weeks. We also have ultra-popoular John Lynch at the top of the ticket with a weak Republican opponent. NH-02 is the most important race in the state this election cycle, and a race that we can win.