NM-01.
Research & Polling / ABQ Journal. 8/25-31. Likely voters. MoE 4.8%
Wilson (R) 45
Madrid (D) 42
NM-Sen. Research & Polling / ABQ Journal. 8/25-31. Likely voters. MoE 3.7%
Bingaman (D) 62
McCulloch (R) 23
NM-02. Research & Polling / ABQ Journal. 8/25-31. Likely voters. MoE 8.4%
Pearce (R) 54
Kissling (D) 29
NM-03. Research & Polling / ABQ Journal. 8/25-31. Likely voters. MoE 8.4%
Udall (D) 71
Dolin (R) 18
An independent poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal confirms a
Madrid internal that has the race all tied up.
New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan has the scoop on some of the cross tabs:
Sanderoff points out that Attorney General Madrid, twice elected statewide, is polling 54% of the Hispanic vote, too low for the win. Heather captures 35% of the Hispanic vote, again flexing her muscle with this traditionally Democratic group which has been an underpinning of her electoral success. But Wilson is only winning 17% of the Democrats' votes. She will need to up that total to around 25% to again enter the winner's circle. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 1st District by nearly 40,000, but in the past she has held her Republican base, won the independents and took at least 25% of the Dems to put her over the finish line.
As expected, Heather is carrying 52% of the Anglo vote, many of them R's. In the gender battle, Patsy gets the gals, winning 45% to Heather's 41%, while Heather smothers Patsy with the boys, 49% to 39%. That ten point spread leads me to believe that Madrid needs work with Hispanic male voters.
Another critical number and good news for Wilson is her continued power with voters over 65 years, the most reliable voting demographic and one that will represent a higher percentage of voters than usual in 06' because this is a mid-term election that draws fewer voters to the polls than a presidential year. Wilson has sealed the deal with a majority of them, getting 51% to Patsy's 39%. Madrid will now be pressured to stop the bleeding with the vital prune juice set.
Patsy is winning 66% of the Dems, much less than Heather's 83% among her party's members. The obvious and not unrealistic hope for the AG's campaign is that she is positioned to pick up many more D's than Heather by November 7.
Sanderoff, addressing speculation that some R's could start peeling away from Heather because of the unpopularity of the Prez and the party nationally, said we can put that to rest. "She is getting 83% of the Republicans and that will probably go to near 90% by Election Day," he predicted. But will GOP turnout be traditional, or will softness show up as a lower turnout than usual and hurt Heather? That's just one of the many multimillion dollar questions in this hotly-contested, high-stakes battle.
Other polling tidbits include "self-reported liberals" who give Madrid 69% support, a number sure to grow. And Heather gets 66% of "self-reported conservatives," a number that should also go up, but maybe not as easily as Madrid's liberals.
There's no doubt that this is going to be a closely fought battle - and one that's absolutely critical for the Dems to retake the House. Not only is it important for the Dems chances this year - if Dems don't knock Heather Wilson out this time, it'll raise Wilson's profile and we may very well be talking about Senator Heather Wilson when Pete Domenici retires. It's critical that we retire Wilson this year.
As for the other races? Sleepers. Bingaman and Udall will win in landslides. And, unfortunately, it looks like Pearce is safe in CD-02.