This year's midterms are often compared to the 1994 elections that changed control of Congress. I thought it might be interesting to take a look back and see what was being said then. CW at this point in the cycle seemed to be a widespread belief that Dems would lose big time. Here are a few examples of that mindset.
This is from a program called "CNN & Company"
MARY TILLOTSON, Host: Thanks very much for being with us. President Clinton has just finished a Labor Day speech to shipyard workers at Bath, Maine. Mr. Clinton, of course, isn't the only politician out talking to voters today, since Labor Day is the traditional kickoff of the fall campaign season.
This year's midterm election has Republicans licking their chops at the prospect of big wins in the House and Senate, and here to talk about the political landscape, heading into the fall, are Republican consultant Maureen Reagan; Jane Norris, who is a regular talk show host at WHAS in Louisville, Kentucky; and Susan Page, White House correspondent for Newsday. Very glad all three of you interrupted what might have been a holiday for you to come in.
Jane Norris is now a
Director of Public Affairs at HHS
Let's start- quick prediction, yes or no from each of you. Maureen, are the Republicans going to take enough seats to take control of the Senate?
MAUREEN REAGAN, Republican Consultant: I think it's going to be close. I hope so, but I'm not positive.
MARY TILLOTSON: That's a maybe. Jane?
JANE NORRIS, Radio Talk Show Host: I think yes. I would say more definitely yes. There's a mood out there for change.
MARY TILLOTSON: Susan?
SUSAN PAGE, 'Newsday': I would say the Democrats are going to lose effective control of the Senate. Whether or not they lose numerical control is a little less clear.
MARY TILLOTSON: Whether it's a seven net seats gain that they need to actually have a majority leader. A question to Susan to kick it off. Was there any irony - sort of sad, from the President's point of view - that he chose Maine to make this speech when Maine, given George Mitchell's retirement, is one of those very Democratic Senate seats that's now in trouble?
SUSAN PAGE: Yeah, it is in trouble. At the moment, Olympia Snow, the popular woman Republican congresswoman, is seen leading Tom Andrews, who is the Democratic challenger there, and it's one of several trouble spots for Democrats across the country. There are perhaps nine Democratic-held Senate seats that now look like they're either- Democrats are behind or they're up for grabs.
MARY TILLOTSON: To Jane- it's almost a microcosm of the trouble that Mr. Clinton's part is in and that he was plugging Tom Andrews, the Democratic candidate, two or three times in his speech in Bath today. There's a New York Times piece today quoting some folks at Andrews' campaign, suggesting perhaps they would have preferred Mr. Clinton not to come.
JANE NORRIS: Isn't that a sad commentary on the presidency? And that's happening all across the country, even in Kentucky, where we saw an unprecedented win for Ron Lewis, who- a seat that was held by Democrats for a long time suddenly turned over to a Democratic victory, so- I mean, a Republican victory. So you see, I think, a mood for change in this country. Much the same mood that swept President Clinton into the presidency is sweeping through the electorate for the coming elections in November.
MARY TILLOTSON: And, to stick with the irony theme with Jane just a moment longer- one of the ironies, I have to believe, is that George Mitchell decided to sit there, not take a Supreme Court job or any other job to try and get a health care package through and it now looks as if major health care reform is dead for this year, doesn't it?
JANE NORRIS: I don't know if major health care reform is dead for this year. I think they're going to come back again in the next session of Congress and debate it once more. I think they're going to take the pulse of a lot of the people around the country about health care reform and see whether or not the people of the United States can tolerate that kind of- basically what amounts to an increase in taxes.
sigh...
Here's what appeared in The Independent (London) on Labor Day in 1994:
THE Republicans would love them to be held tomorrow. Despondent Democrats wish that by some miracle Tuesday 8 November and all that goes with it, might be expunged from the calendar of 1994. But in two months' time, America's mid-term elections will take place, and rarely have the stakes been so high.
...
Invariably, mid-term elections punish the party in the White House. But not for two decades, since Republican candidates took the field in the autumn after Watergate, has a party in power been as jittery as today's Democrats, saddled with a deeply unpopular president, a meagre record of legislative achievement and an anti-incumbent mood among voters as strong as that which made Ross Perot the sensation of 1992.
And here's an AP piece assessing the race:
For months, Bob Dole delivered it as a throwaway line, giving little impression he actually believed it possible: "I've been the majority leader, and I've been the minority leader. I'd much rather be the majority leader."
These days, it doesn't sound so farfetched.
Nine weeks before midterm elections featuring 35 Senate contests, Republicans have an outside shot of gaining the seven seats they need for Senate control, a prize they last had in 1986. At a minimum, they appear poised to erode a 56-44 Democratic majority that already is fragile on most issues.
That, combined with expected GOP gains in the House, would undoubtedly spell trouble for President Clinton, making it even more difficult for a president elected on a promise of sweeping change to deliver it in the second half of his term.
...
Missing in the Democratic ads are any references to Clinton. Instead, they are far more likely to stress independence and individual accomplishments.
An example is New Mexico, where Clinton's grazing policies have put all Democrats on the defensive and Sen. Jeff Bingaman faces a competitive challenge from banker Colin McMillan, a former state lawmaker and Bush administration Pentagon official.
"An independent voice for New Mexico," is the tag line of Bingaman's ads.
...
Surgeon Bill Frist is the Republican challenger to Senate Budget Committee Chairman Jim Sasser of Tennessee, a candidate to replace Mitchell as majority leader if Democrats hold the Senate. In one of his ads, Frist says "if you are fed up with the way the country is run, then change the people who run it," a recurring Republican theme.
This is one time when I agree with Bill Frist. Let's hope enough voters in November do too.
If people think this is valuable, I may do more of these from time to time. From reading through these articles (sorry I can't link to them - they're from LN) I am not surprised to see how Clinton's approval ratings (at about 40) are treated as horrific. While Bush who has hovered there for much longer is always bouncing. What strikes you about the similarities/differences between then and now?