This is Tom Osbourne's district. Rural Nebraska, the heartland of America. Sixty nine counties spread across 65,000 square miles of rolling brown fields and small towns, the exact point on the map where the Midwest becomes the West.
It is, and has always been, a bastion of Republican strength. Bush racked up a victory of 75% in 2004. Bill Clinton finished a distant third in 1992. It rarely votes Democrat in Senate and Gubernatorial races, and has never sent a Democrat to the House. But it's about to be won by a 30-year-old ranch hand with no prior political experience and a "D" next to his name.
I am becoming more sure of this every day: Scott Kleeb is going to win in NE-03.
Why? You'll just have to see after the flip.
Scott Kleeb is a leader. Adrian Smith is a lackey
This is one district where retail politics are still required of all political candidates. The residents here are conservative and Republican, but they are also in a way fiercely independent and retain a blue-collar identification with the fighter, the lone wolf, the iconoclast. These are the people of William Jennings Bryan, Senator George Norris and Governor Frank Morrison. Of Ed Zorinsky, Jim Exon and Bob Kerrey. And yes, of Ben Nelson and Chuck Hagel too. In the past when this seat has been open, the voters have denied their overwhelming partisan slant and elected Republicans by narrow margins over Democratic challengers. The difference was a mere 737 votes in 1974, and only 4,373 in 1990.
In this year, in this open seat, it is obvious that Kleeb is the only candidate to fit the mold of the classic praire populist. This Yale-educated, Ph.D, bullriding ranch hand is advancing a platform that calls for a rural economy with people and ideas flowing in, not out. Under the slogan "energy independence starts here", Kleeb is proposing to make western Nebraska a world leader in ethanol and biofuels research, as well as investing in alternative forms of renewable energy development.
The contrast with his opponent is striking. State Senator Adrian Smith is a longtime Republican hack desperately trying to fend off Kleeb's insurgent campaign with cookie-cutter Republican scare tactics. But Kleeb's not your typical Democrat, bobbing and weaving and running from a fight. While Smith dismisses worries about global warming and warns that environmental regulations will hurt the economy, Kleeb urges immediate action to combat climate change and charges that "we can both be green ... and economically viable."
While Smith brags about his endorsement from Nebraska Right to Life, Kleeb (who is personally opposed to abortion except in cases of rape and incest) defiantly opposes a constitutional ban on abortion, saying that "criminalization" is not the answer. When Smith resorts to gay-baiting and homophobia, Kleeb courageously says he supports civil unions. When Smith says he opposes stem cell research because "we need to respect life," Kleeb reminds him that we can best respect life by advancing promising cures for debilitating and often fatal diseases.
But where Kleeb hits hardest is when he's attacking Smith's close ties to the Club for Growth. The ultraconservative PAC has funnelled nearly $400,000 (more than half of Smith's total campaign funds) to this candidate in one of our nation's largest agriculutral districts while at the same time calling for the abolishment of the Department of Agriculture, the end of agriculutral subsidies and has even derisevly labeled our nation's farmers as "Moscow on the Missouri". Kleeb has effectively used this as a wedge between Smith and the Republican farmers he is asking for support, leading many newspaper's to follow the Omaha World Herald's example in calling for Smith to "explain why he's agreed to take as much money as he (has) from a group that is not only out of touch with the 3rd Dictrict but is opposing its single biggest industry" (OWH, 8/10/06).
Kleeb's campaign is a well-oiled machine. Smith's is a flop
I have to say I am greatly impressed by the smarts and the professionalism of the Kleeb campaign, and greatly amused by the ameuterish, Rove-lite campaign being offered by Smith, someone with a hell of a lot of experience in local politics who apparently still doesn't get it.
Kleeb's ability to dominate press coverage of this race (and it's recieving a lot) is one of his greatest assets. Scott's well-timed policy proposals have earned him a multitude of statewide headlines like "Kleeb Voices Support for Congressional Pay Cut", "Kleeb Promotes Energy Independence", and "Kleeb blasts Smith after radio show comments". Scott's press strategy is bold and proactive: he's the one grabbing headlines while Smith is left with uninspiring quotes buried in the columns (the only comment his campaign managed to squeeze into the story about Kleeb's paycut proposal was this: "Smith said he would not be opposed to a congressional pay cut, though he said there are bigger issues for Congress to tackle.")
When Smith brought in Cheney to do a headline fundraiser for him, Kleeb turned the story around and made it his own by demanding that the Smith campaign reimburse the city of Grand Island for the security expenses (resulting in Smith's campaign e-mail being filled to capacity by angry letter-writers organized by the Nebraska Democrats, as well as overhwlemingly negative press perhaps best demonstrated by this cartoon: http://www.nealo.com/... ).
Kleeb's proactive approach has led to Smith getting blasted in newspaper editorials over his Club for Growth connections and his silly attempt to explain them away (by falsely claiming that they were opposed only to tobacco subsidies). The GOP became so desperate that they had one of Smith's State Senate buddies write up a nasty and mean-spirited editorial accusing Kleeb (who, despite deep Nebraskan roots, grew up on military bases overseas and attended college at Yale) of being a carpetbagger. This only prompted the World Herald to write yet another editorial blasting Smith's Club for Growth ties, as well as a well-written response from prominent local rancher/businessman Jim Jenkins arguing simply that "Scott Kleeb wants to reenergize our rural economies so that more talented young people can do what he has done: return home to Nebraska. Such an attitude deserves Nebraskans' respect. "
What's even more unbelievable, however, is that Kleeb has now taken the lead in paid media as well. Taking advantage of his huge cash advantage over Smith (see my earlier diary: http://www.dailykos.com/... ), Scott beat out Adrian this week and launched the first television ad of the general election (see it here: http://www.youtube.com/... ) For my money, it's one of the most effective ads of the cycle and will benefit greatly from comparrison with the depressing and never-ending television slugfest between Senate candidates Nelson and Ricketts. It's sort of the advertising equivalent of that iconic moment during the '92 debates when, in response to an audience member asking the candidates how the recession had personally affected them, Governor Clinton came out from behind the podium, looked the questioner in the eye and asked simply: "Tell me again how it has affected you."
Kleeb is agressively defining himself as a different kind of candidate. One with the courage to stand up for his beliefs even when there is potentially severe political costs. One with the ability to listen and talk with voters openly and honestly, even when he disagrees with them. One with a bold vision for Nebraska's future and its place in the global economy.
The odds against him are long, and his potential victory would be without precedent. But this is a candidate who is taking a stand, and this is a campaign that knows what it is doing. Please consider donating to this groundbreaking effort. You can be sure that your money will be well spent.
http://www.scottkleeb.com/...