Warnock, a pastor who holds the pulpit at Martin Luther King Jr.'s Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, will not only become Georgia's first-ever Black senator but also the first Black Democrat elected to the Senate from a state of the old Confederacy. Meanwhile, Ossoff, an investigative journalist who shot to prominence in a 2017 special election for the House, would be the first Jewish senator elected from the Deep South, and, at just 33, the youngest Democrat in the Senate since none other than Joe Biden.
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The two likely victories cap off a remarkable election cycle that saw Biden become the first Democrat to carry Georgia's electoral votes since Bill Clinton in 1992. They would also see Democrats reverse a long history of desultory turnout in runoff elections, which were originally put in place precisely to prevent Black candidates from winning office, making Warnock's win all the more extraordinary.
This unlikely turn of events was powered by major shifts in Georgia's electorate, which has both grown more diverse in recent years and seen many once-loyal Republican voters abandon their party out of disgust with Donald Trump. When Democrats last won a Senate seat in Georgia 20 years ago, the victor was the notoriously conservative Zell Miller, who later went on to serve as a keynote speaker for George W. Bush at the Republican National Convention in 2004.
Warnock and Ossoff, by contrast, ran campaigns that reflected a newer South and affirmed mainstream progressive values, including support for $2,000 COVID relief checks—an issue that became central in the final days of the race and put both Republicans at odds with Trump.
Most consequentially, if Ossoff’s victory holds up, Democrats will find themselves in charge of both houses of Congress and the White House for the first time in a decade. While many challenges will await, this alone will remove the biggest obstacle to Democratic priorities—including Biden's cabinet appointments and judicial nominations—by deposing Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader.
The durability of Georgia's political transformation will be tested again soon: Because the Warnock-Loeffler race was a special election for the final two years of former Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson's term, Warnock will have to run again for a full six-year term in 2022. Ossoff, by contrast, would not go before voters again until 2026.
P.S. The last time a state's entire Senate delegation changed hands on the same night was in November of 1994, when Republicans won a pair of elections in Tennessee, including a special election for the seat that had previously been held by Al Gore.
Governors
● FL-Gov: Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried has been mentioned as a potential Democratic opponent for Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis almost from the moment that she was elected in 2018, and the spokesperson for her political action committee confirmed to Politico that the commissioner is indeed considering making the race. Fried was elected to her current post 50.04-49.6, a result that made her the only Democrat to win statewide in any of the four election cycles from 2014 through 2020.
● IL-Gov: WBEZ's Tony Arnold takes a look at the potential GOP field to take on Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and lists some possibilities we hadn't yet heard.
The only new name who expressed interest for the article was state Sen. Jason Barickman, though he didn't sound enthusiastic about the idea. "It's not something I sought out to do," Barickman said, "I have a young family which is my first consideration but I'm doing my due diligence in response to the encouragement that's been made of me." Arnold also writes that wealthy businessman Gary Rabine and outgoing state Sen. Paul Schimpf are considering joining the contest, though they didn't say anything publicly.
Arnold mentions outgoing state Senate Minority Leader Bill Brady, who narrowly lost the 2010 general election to Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and unsuccessfully sought the nomination again in 2014, as another potential candidate.
Brady announced on New Year's Eve that he'd be resigning from the legislature, and while his statement didn't mention this race in particular, he did write, "When I was elected leader, I said that I would not pursue any other elected office during my leadership of the caucus." A Brady spokesperson would only tell Arnold that the soon-to-be-former senator "is interested in working on the critical issues facing Illinois."
Arnold also notes that corporate attorney Richard Porter, who has served on the Republican National Committee, has "joked that he may have to be an adversary against his fellow candidates if he chooses to run." There's no indication yet, though, if Porter, who has never sought elected office, was serious.
Finally, Arnold writes that Rep. Rodney Davis could try to seek a promotion if the Democratic-run state government leaves him with an unfavorable seat after this round of redistricting. The congressman doesn't appear to have addressed the idea of a campaign against Pritzker, though Arnold said that while many of the Republicans he'd interviewed for the story took "some shots at Pritzker for this story," Davis was "by far the most aggressive."
● MI-Gov: The Detroit News mentions state Sen. Tom Barrett as a possible Republican candidate, though there's no word on his interest.
● NH-Gov: Here we go again. Corey Lewandowski, who served as Donald Trump's first 2016 campaign manager and remains in Trump's orbit as one of his senior advisors, told WMUR that he was considering seeking the Republican nomination for governor. Lewandowski added that he'd be willing to run in a primary against Gov. Chris Sununu or former Sen. Kelly Ayotte: Sununu is the GOP's top pick to run for the Senate, and Ayotte has been mentioned as a potential candidate to succeed him in the governor's office.
Lewandowski spent months in 2019 talking about challenging Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, an idea that Trump very much encouraged. Plenty of state and national Republicans, though, feared that Lewandowski would be a weak candidate; Sununu himself even reportedly warned party leaders that Lewandowski could harm the entire state ticket, including his own re-election campaign. Lewandowski ultimately stayed out of the race, and while eventual nominee Corky Messner badly lost to Shaheen, he didn't prevent Sununu from easily winning his own race.
House
● LA-05: A special election will take place on March 20 to succeed Republican Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, who died from complications of COVID-19 shortly before the new year, in this very red northeast Louisiana district, and potential candidates have only until Jan. 22 to decide if they'll run. All the contenders will run on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, an April 24 runoff would take place between the top-two vote-getters, regardless of party.
The Monroe News-Star's Greg Hilburn writes that a number of Republicans are waiting to see if former Rep. Ralph Abraham, whose term ended on Sunday, will run again. Abraham, who decided not to seek a fourth term in 2020, said Monday that it was unlikely he'd try to reclaim the seat, though Hilburn writes that the Republican didn't rule out the idea altogether.
Another possible candidate is Letlow's widow, University of Louisiana Monroe official Julia Letlow. A family spokesperson said, "Julia is currently spending time with family and will take time in the coming days to reflect, pray and come to a decision on running for her husband's congressional seat."
Hilburn also names some Republicans who have "all said they will either run or consider running if Abraham doesn't," though he notes that most of them hadn't heard about Julia Letlow's potential campaign when they were asked. These names include state Sen. Stewart Cathey; state Reps. Michael Echols and Chris Turner; and Ouachita Parish Police Juror Scotty Robinson, who took fifth place with 8% of the vote in the November all-party primary.
State Rep. Lance Harris, who lost the December runoff to Letlow 62-38, recently said that it would be "inappropriate" to talk about his plans so soon after the congressman-elect's death, though Hilburn writes he "expressed similar sentiments last week" regarding Abraham's plans as the other potential candidates.
On the Democratic side, Candy Christophe, whom Harris edged out 17-16 for second place in November, has already announced she's in. Martin Lemelle, who earned fourth place with 10%, is also thinking about another try.
● NM-01: State Rep. Georgene Louis announced Monday that she would seek the Democratic nomination to succeed Democratic Rep. Deb Haaland if she's confirmed as interior secretary.
On the Republican side, conservative radio host Eddy Aragon, who unsuccessfully tried to unseat Steve Pearce late last year as party chair, also says he plans to run if there's a vacancy. Both the Democratic and Republican nominees in a special election will be chosen by party leaders, not by voters in a primary. Joe Biden carried this Albuquerque-based seat 60-37 last year.
Mayors
● Anchorage, AK Mayor: Former City Assemblyman Bill Evans, a Republican who is one of several candidates competing in the May 5 nonpartisan primary, earned an endorsement last month from former Mayor Dan Sullivan (not to be confused with the U.S. senator with the same name).
● Fort Worth, TX Mayor: Republican Mayor Betsy Price announced Tuesday that she would not seek a sixth two-year term in the May 1 nonpartisan primary. Price, who is Fort Worth's longest-serving chief executive, is also one of just two Republicans to lead any of the nation's 20 largest cities. (The other is Lenny Curry, the mayor of Jacksonville, Florida.) The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 12, so Price's potential successors will only have a little time to decide what they'll do. All the contenders will face off on one nonpartisan ballot in May, and a runoff would take place later if no one took a majority of the vote.
Price was decisively elected in 2011 to succeed retiring Democratic Mayor Mike Moncrief, and she won her next three campaigns without any trouble. Politics in Fort Worth's Tarrant County has been changing over the last few years, though, and Team Blue was encouraged by 2018 victories up and down the ballot. Price faced a serious challenge the following year from Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Deborah Peoples, and while the incumbent won 56-42, the margin was considerably closer than any of Price's other re-election campaigns.
The 2020 presidential results give Democrats some reasons for optimism about the race to succeed Price: Joe Biden won Tarrant County by a narrow 49.3-49.1, a showing that made him the first Democrat to carry the county since Texan Lyndon Johnson took it in his 1964 landslide.
Peoples has been preparing for a second campaign for a while, and she confirmed on Tuesday that she was in. Republican City Councilman Brian Byrd also said just before the Price's announcement that he'd be running if the incumbent didn't, while his Democratic colleague Ann Zadeh also expressed interest. Attorney Dee Kelly, who called himself a friend of Price's, also said he'd consider an open seat race, while Democratic state Rep. Ramon Romero also didn't dismiss the idea on Tuesday. Romero, whose parents emigrated from Mexico, said, "I believe it would be irresponsible for any leader of a community of color across the city to prematurely rule out a run."
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