http://www.guardian.co.uk/...
Please check out this fascinating report filed by the Guardian. It actually reports from inside the Sunni insurgency. I haven't read anything like it, and it makes one thing very clear: 5 years after 9/11, Al Qaeda is handing us another embarassing and costly defeat.
The article makes clear that the Sunni insurgency formed an alliance with Al Qaeda, an organized and equipped Al Qaeda, early on in the US invasion, ostensibly to fight the Americans. Al Qaeda, however, had other plans. They were glad to help the insurgents kill Americans, providing arms and support, but at the same time they were going to start random attacks on Shia to incite civil war. We have known this to some extent for a long time, but the article makes clear how purposeful and organized the strategy was.
And they have succeeded. Now some Sunni commanders are looking to align with US troops to fight Shia, while at the same time others are still killing Americans at an alrming rate. The whole situation has expanded and metasticized to include Al Qaeda attacks on Americans and Shia (don't forget that Al Qaeda is Sunni), Sunni attaks on Americans, Shia death squad attacks on Sunni's in retaliation to Al Qaeda's attacks, and Sunni retaliation and defence against Shia.
The true sectarian nature of the situation, and the increased irrelevance of Americans as a focal point of resistance, makes it more likely in my mind that the violence could spill over into other countries. It has been reported elsewhere that Saudi Arabia and Jordan are providing Sunni support, and we have heard accusations that Syria and Iran are involved. In the end the conflict may take on a sectarian face that has little or nothing to do with the original invasion.
And once we, probably through our clent Israel, attack Iran and/or Syria directly, the vectors will fly off into further unexpected directions. But all the while we have Al Qaeda, the one true and clear enemy of our country, directing events in the region. Their strategy after all, is to incite regime change in the Arab States. They apparently couldn't do it alone and needed the destabilizing influence of an American intervention, which they got, in spades.
So now it seems that withdrawal is the only option. While Al Qaeda can and will claim victory, it is the only way to drain the swamp feeding its support. This may be too much to hope for since there is a consensus in Washington that US troops must stay in some sizeable strength, even if redeployed to permanant bases. But even this low key intervention will be enough to feed the anti-Americanism and srengthen Al Qaeda.