Why do just 48% of Democrats in a national poll say they would like to see Al Gore run for President in 2008?
I was at first puzzled by the findings of an Oct. 12-14 Gallup poll as reported in a diary by NYPopulist. 79% of Democrats in the poll have a favorable opinion of Gore, yet
By a 48-43% margin, [Democratic] respondents would like to see the former vice president throw his hat into the ring.
That's a whopping 29% of Democrats who like Gore but don't want him to become a candidate for President.
I learned a lot about these people in the past week as I was out talking to many hundreds of Massachusetts voters, asking them to sign a petition to put Al's name on the presidential primary ballot.
At a farmer's market in Somerville, a town fair in Newton, and at the polls during the special election for the 5th CD (MA) on Tuesday in Lowell and Andover, I spoke (briefly) with many hundreds of voters, asking them to support Draft Gore Massachusetts' effort to encourage Gore to run.
I met lots of folks who obviously admire him yet don't want him to run for President. Their typical responses to my request for a signature on a nominating petition were "What he's doing is more important," "It would take away from what he's doing on climate change," "He's been through enough already," and "He's happy doing what he's doing."
I didn't keep count, but my guesstimate is that I heard this response somewhere between and 1/8 and 1/4 as often as I got signatures. (If every one of the 29% of Democrats who are "favorable but don't support run" responded to me in this way, then the ratio would be 1/2 as often as I got a signature.)
If Al Gore himself took the decision to run, I have to believe that he could persuade almost all of these people to support him. So the potential support for Gore to throw his hat into the ring is much higher than 48% of Democrats. By a calculation based on my estimates and Gallup's 48%-43%, Democrats would support an actual Gore candidacy by a margin of at least between 54%-37% (pro-con) and 60%-31% (pro-con).
This is both good news and bad news for the movement to recruit Gore into the race. It's certainly good news that the support among Democrats for Gore's leadership is much greater than indicated by the Gallup poll. But it's bad news that there is also substantial Democratic voter support (as much as 29%) for what Gore is doing right now. Not running.
What would bring Gore's supporters together to form a more united movement? He may have the answer, but Al is no Howard Dean, so it may be up to us.