I've recently discovered how to import the FEC filings of presidential campaigns into Excel, and I'm now wasting time like never before.
The biggest surprise for me was the fact that Barack Obama has outraised Hillary Clinton by $12 million in individual donations for the primary campaign, netting $75 million compared to Hillary's $63 million haul.
I was also surprised that almost all of Hillary's $14 million cash-on-hand advantage is useless to her in the primary because $17 million of her contributions can only be used in the general election.
I've put together a whimsical YouTube video with some of the data I put together, but if you want to jump straight into the numbers and my brief analysis, click through -- they're after the jump.
(I should note that I'm leaning towards John Edwards, but am open to both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. If Al Gore runs, I'm with him 100% though.)
Here are my top conclusions:
- The breadth of Barack Obama's support is simply amazing. Although Hillary Clinton has outraised him $91m to $80m, $28 million of her funding comes from sources other than individual primary campaign contributions. For the primary, Obama has outraised Hillary $75 million to $63 million.
- Most large donors support Hillary Clinton. In fact, 78% of her primary campaign contributions have come from large donors (compared to 59% for Edwards and 63% for Obama).
- Hillary Clinton's $14 million cash on hand advantage is largely an illusion because $17 million of her COH is earmarked for the general, compared to $4 for Obama.
- After Edwards receives federal matching funds, he will have about the same amount to spend in Q108 as will Clinton and Obama (a little over $30 million each). (Edit: Edwards may not quite have $30 million, due to the intricacies of the matching system. His number is likely somewhere in upper-20s, depending on what he spends in Q4.)
Here is the data, which I pulled from the Q3 FEC reports of each campaign.
As we all know, Hillary Clinton enjoys an fundraising advantage of nearly $11 million.
Barack Obama, however, has a $12 million advantage in raising money from individuals for his primary campaign.
Hillary's advantage comes from her overwhelming lead in donations to her general election campaign as well as a $10 million transfer from her Senate campaign.
In all, Hillary has a $28 million advantage. Most of that comes from donations earmarked for the general, which will be worthless to her in the primary. Her transfer of $10 million from her Senate campaign mostly erases Obama's $12 million advantage in individual primary donations and her $750 thousand from PACs makes up much of the remaining gap.
Overall, more than two-thirds of donations to the three candidates have come from large donors (over $1,000).
More than three-quarters of Hillary's primary funds come from large donors.
On the flip-side, more than two-fifths of Edwards' primary funds come from small and medium donors.
More than one-third of Obama's primary funds come from small and medium donors.
As you remember, Obama "won" the plurality of individual donations to the primary campaigns.
Obama won the majority of funds from small donors.
Obama also won the majority of funds from medium donors.
Hillary, however, received more money from large donors than either Obama or Edwards.
Hillary ended Q3 with a large -- $14.4 million -- cash on hand advantage.
$16.7 million of her cash on hand, however, is dedicated to the general election, shrinking her advantage over Obama to $1.9 million.
John Edwards has decided to participate in the public financing system, giving him an additional $21 million.
Assuming the campaigns continue to raise the same amount as they spend (as they did in Q307), at the beginning of 2008, the three major candidates will have about the same amount of money to spend on the primary campaign, which should be over by the end of Q108.
(Edit: Edwards may not quite have $30 million, due to the intricacies of the matching system. His number is likely somewhere in upper-20s, depending on what he spends in Q4.)
Hopefully this data was as interesting to you as it was to me.
If nothing else, it seems to show me one thing: this campaign is far from over.
Peace,
Patel1946
George Orwell wrote Politics and the English Language in 1946