This is to be the fourth of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I’ve been AWOL for about two months due to various work and home issues (and the fact that I’ve been drawn into discussions on threads when I have had dKos time rather than working on these). I include my vulnerability score in each profile. A higher number means more vulnerable. Generally, if a district is on the list, the score is above 90, and above 100 means likely top tier. The next two paragraphs are the intro which will appear at the top of each, so feel free to skip.
These are largely districts that I mentioned in my overview diary here: http://www.dailykos.com/... In addition, I decided to add 19 "50 State Strategy" districts. These are districts which would not otherwise make my list but where the Democratic nominee in 2006 a) improved by at least 5 percentage points on 2004 performance and b) held the incumbent under 60%. Finally, recent developments have added a couple of seats. I will look at the seats regionally, and look at both GOP-held and Dem-held seats together. Of the 20 groupings I came up with, there are two which contain only GOP seats to target. The rest are a mix. Each profiles between 5 and 9 races.
Despite the Democrats’ 30-seat gain in 2006, there are more GOP seats profiled than Democratic ones. This is partially because I am not hugely interested in helping the GOP find longshot Dems to target and have employed somewhat narrower criteria for the Dem seats. It is mainly because the same macro factors which led to the 2006 wipeout are still present, and are magnified. The national mood is still against the Republicans and still favors the Democrats (despite grumbling from the Dem base that the new Congress has not gone far enough or been bold enough in opposing Bush and the Congressional Republicans). The GOP campaign committees are short on cash; the Republican cash advantage is a thing of the past. Now, only the RNC maintains a cash edge over the DNC, and that money is going to bridge the fundraising gap between the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates. Democrats have done better at recruiting top candidates thus far. Finally, and most damaging, most of the key retirements and likely retirements are on the GOP side. The Republicans already have 14 open seats (counting special elections) to the Dems’ 3.
The lineup is as follows:
Part I: New England
Part II: New York
Part III: New Jersey, Pennsylvania Part I
Part IV: Pennsylvania Part II
Part V: Delaware, Maryland, Virginia
Part VI: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
Part VII: Florida Part I
Part VIII: Florida Part II
Part IX: West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana
Part X: Texas
Part XI: Ohio
Part XII: Indiana
Part XIII: Michigan, Wisconsin
Part XIV: Illinois
Part XV: Minnesota, Iowa
Part XVI: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas
Part XVII: Wyoming, Utah, Colorado
Part XVIII: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona
Part XIX: California
Part XX: Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Alaska
This diary will deal with the remaining seven of the ten—count ‘em 10—profiled seats in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the classic example of a state whose Republican governor and legislature created a finely balanced gerrymander in 2002 based on the politics of the day. As a result of the remap, Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation changed from a 11-10 GOP advantage going into November 2002 to a 12-7 edge afterwards. Only an upset win by Rep. Tim Holden over Rep. George Gekas in a district drawn to favor Gekas saved the Dems from the 13-6 result intended by the line-drawers. Democrats have had the last (or most recent) laugh, however. As Democratic performance improved, suddenly a large number of seats became vulnerable. The Dems picked up four seats in the state in 2006, the most of any state, and are poised to raise challenges in several others this year. This diary features the GOP 9th, 15th, 16th and 18th District seats as well as the 7th, 8th and 10th district, which the Dems picked off in 2006.
Pennsylvania 07 (Joe Sestak (D)) Vulnerability Score: 94.5
Pennsylvania’s Seventh District is located in the Philadelphia suburbs. It is the "majority of Delaware County (except for the City of Chester and some of the eastern boroughs), a portion of Chester County east of West Chester, and a portion of southern Montgomery County in the affluent Main Line area," saith wikipedia. Like the rest of the Philly suburbs, this district has been trending Democratic ever since Bill Clinton’s first Presidential run in 1992. Al Gore won the two-party vote here 52-48 and John Kerry improved that margin to 53-47. Cook’s PVI is D+4. Until 2006, the district was held by "moderate" Republican Curt Weldon. Weldon had not had a serious challenge since he got to Washington and had gotten complacent, forgetting how to run a campaign. Seeing an opportunity, the DCCC and other Democratic leaders recruited former Admiral Joe Sestak into the 2006 race. Initially considered a second-tier opportunity, Sestak raised a ton of cash and ran an energetic campaign—a far superior one to the incumbent. By election day, the GOP had more or less written off this race, and Sestak won going away by a 56-44 margin. The GOP does not have a candidate to oppose Sestak in 2008 yet, and no big names are considering. This race may well fall off the vulnerability lists entirely, but for now it remains.
Pennsylvania 08 (Patrick Murphy (D)) VS: 104
Pennsylvania’s 8th District is another suburban Philadelphia district. It is mostly Bucks County along the New Jersey border with small portions of Montgomery County and northeast Philadelphia thrown in. Politically, the 8th is very much like the 7th: it has become more Democratic over the past 15 years. Gore won it 53-47; Kerry backslid a bit to 52-48. Cook labels it D+3. It is actually the scene of one of the netroots early failures, and also one of their biggest successes. In 2004, popular longtime GOP incumbent Jim Greenwood pulled a Bill Lipinski: he filed for the seat, waited until the filing deadline had passed, and then announced his retirement. Under local law, the GOP was able to pick a substitute, and they picked state legislator Mike Fitzpatrick. The Democrats meanwhile had nominated an unknown sacrificial lamb, Ginny Schrader. The party’s initial inclination was to move to replace Schrader with a more high profile candidate. Under pressure, mainly from the netroots, to give Schrader her shot, the party backed down. Fitzpatrick won the race easily, 55-44. Fast forward to 2006. This time, the netroots coalesced early behind a young, telegenic Iraq war veteran named Patrick Murphy and helped him easily defeat a more "insider" candidate—former Bucks County commissioner Andy Warren in the primary. The Fitzpatrick-Murphy general election was close and hard fought from start to finish. It was no surprise that it was one of the closest races in the country on Election night. When all the votes were in, Murphy won by 1,521—a 50-50 result. Fitzpatrick has not announced whether he will seek a rematch and Murphy is currently without a Republican opponent. State Rep. Bernie O’Neill is reportedly considering running. Murphy has already raised $1.36 million and has $1.06 million on hand, very large sums for House candidates. At this point, given the far more attractive targets Jason Altmire in the 4th District and Chris Carney in the 10th and all of the defense the GOP has to play, I would not be surprised if Murphy gets a pass.
Pennsylvania 09 (Bill Shuster (R)) VS: 76.8
This is a very Republican district. It is the base of the famed "T"—the areas of Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro area in the southeast and the Pittsburgh metro area in the southwest—which has been famously described as "Mississippi without the blacks." Bush won 65-35 in 2000 and 67-33 in 2004. Cook has it as R+15. It is on this list as a "50 State Strategy District" because of the marked improvement in Democratic performance in 2006 despite a low budget Dem campaign. The incumbent is Bill Shuster, who succeeded his father, longtime Rep. Bud Shuster in a 2001 special election. The younger Shuster had no problem racking up landslide wins like his father until he faced teacher Tony Barr in 2006. Barr held Shuster to a 60-40 win—a full 10 points behind his own total in 2004 and 7 points behind Bush’s. While it is unlikely that a Dem will actually win here, this is a location where the party appears to be able to establish a foothold. Barr is back for a rematch. He has not filed an FEC report. The incumbent has raised a meager $284K and has only $131K on hand.
Pennsylvania 10 (Chris Carney (D)) VS: 112.2
Pennsylvania’s 10th District is the northeast corner of the state, bordering both New York and New Jersey. It includes parts of 14 counties and was transformed in 2002 from a swing district to a strongly GOP seat by the removal of Scranton and most of Lackawanna County. Gore lost 58-42 here; Kerry lost 60-40. The PVI is R+15. Despite all this, freshman Dem Chris Carney won a comfortable 53-47 victory. Why? For starters, the previous incumbent, Don Sherwood, got into trouble for choking his mistress, who was incidentally half of the 60-year old Congressman’s age. In a rare display of non-hypocrisy the district’s "values voters" punished their GOP Congressman. Secondly, the Democrats got a candidate who fit the district perfectly: clean-cut centrist veteran and professor Chris Carney. Carney will certainly be a top GOP target in 2008. The strongest announced GOPers are former state Sen. John Scott and businessman Chris Hackett. While Scott has not filed an FEC report, Hackett has already raised $247K and has $247K on hand. Carney has raised $774K and has $589K on hand. This will be one of the Dems’ toughest defenses in ’08.
Pennsylvania 15 (Charlie Dent (R)) VS: 103
Pennsylvania 15 is among the last of a dying breed: House districts won by John Kerry in 2004 and still held by a Republican. This district is located in eastern Pennsylvania, sandwiched between three suburban Philly districts to the south (6th, 8th, and 13th) and the northeastern 10th district to the north. It includes the Lehigh valley and is mainly Lehigh and Northampton Counties, with a fingerlike protrusion south into Montgomery and a small amount of eastern Berks county. This is the very definition of "swing district." Gore won it 51-49, Kerry’s win was in 50-50 territory. The PVI is D+2. Conservative Dem Paul McHale held this seat until he retired in 1998. The guy who was supposed to replace him, state Sen. Roy Afflerbach, ran a lousy campaign and wingnut Pat Toomey won the open seat that year. After his spirited primary challenge to Arlen Specter in 2004, Toomey became head of Club for Growth and the seat came open again. Again, the Dems dropped the ball, nominating carpetbagging no-namer Joe Driscoll against Dent. Dent won 60-40, and he won again in 2006 after no Dem filed for the seat and Charles Dertinger belatedly stepped up to fill the hole on the ballot. Dertinger lost only 55-45 despite little money and no support. This year, the Dems are looking more seriously at the seat. Allentown Dem chair Sam Bennett is in and has raised $91K with $33K on hand. Also waiting in the wings are two local big name Dems who have teased jumping into every race since 1998 and have yet to take the plunge: State Dem Chair T.J. Rooney and State Sen. Lisa Boscola. If either were to run, this becomes an instant Tier 1 race, but I’m not holding my breath. Dent has raised $566K and has $459K on hand.
Pennsylvania 16 (Joe Pitts (R)) VS: 81.3
Like the 9th District, this is a very Republican seat on this list as a "50 State Strategy" district. It is a southeastern district well west of Philadelphia and the close-in suburbs. It has exurbs, but is mainly rural, picking up part of the base of the "T". It is mainly Lancaster and Chester Counties. The district gave Bush a 64-36 victory in 2000 and a 62-38 one in 2004. The PVI is R+11. The incumbent is archconservative Joe Pitts. Kossack Lois Herr ran an energetic campaign in 2006 and lost 57-40. In doing so, she cut Pitts’ victory margin by 13 points. This time around, the Dem is contractor Bruce Slater, who has raised only $6K with $1K on hand. Pitts has raised $173K and has $173K on hand.
Pennsylvania 18 (Tim Murphy (R)) VS: 91
Pennsylvania 18 is the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh, extending east from the Ohio border. It includes parts of Washington, Allegheny, and Westmoreland Counties. It was one of the more obvious gerrymanders in 2001, drawn by and for then-state Sen. Tim Murphy. What the legislature did was chop up the areas formerly represented by Reps. Mike Doyle (who has Pittsburgh proper), John Murtha, and Frank Mascara. Where prior to 2002, all three districts had a strong Democratic tilt, afterwards there was an uber-Democratic Pittsburgh seat for Doyle, a sprawling solid Dem district to the east for Murtha, and this district which has a GOP lean. In a move that surprised many, Mascara chose to take on the entrenched Murtha in the 12th District primary rather than face Murphy in the new 18th. Predictably, Mascara got slaughtered and Murphy waltzed into Congress with little opposition. And so it has continued. What Murphy can’t hide forever, however, is that his district isn’t all that Republican. Bush won it 53-47 in 2000 and 54-46 in 2004. The PVI is only R+2. This year, four Dems are announced and three have submitted FEC reports. The most prominent Dem is businesswoman Beth Hafer, the daughter of former state Treasurer (and R to D party switcher) Barbara Hafer. Hafer has raised $76K and has $54K on hand. Her opponents are businessman Dan Wholey, insurance executive Brien Wall, and educator Eric Vecchio. Wholey has raised $56K and has $54K on hand; Wholey has raised $21K and has $20K on hand; Vecchio has not reported any fundraising. Murphy has raised $463K and has $607K on hand.