Conventional Wisdom is that when a one candidate attacks another in a multi candidate primary, the beneficiary is often a third candidate. An example of this is that when Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean started running negative ads in Iowa in 2004, the beneficiaries were John Kerry and John Edwards who maintained a positive image throughout the campaign.
Application of this conventional wisdom has led many to suspect that Barack Obama has applied a shrewd strategy by allowing John Edwards to take the lead in aggressively attacking front runner Hillary Clinton, assuming that the Iowa caucus participants will ultimately choose the candidate who stays positive.
I think though this CW, is missing a critical piece.
The conventional wisdom is generally summed up as when A attacks B and B attacks A, C is the beneficiary. Remember that in 2004 Dean responded to Gephardt's attack ads, with negative ads of his own against Gephardt. The lesson might better be that negative ads work on bringing down the focus of the attacks.
My question however if what happens if A attacks C, and C responds by attacking B.
At the moment the Clinton campaign seems more concerned about Obama sneaking past them from second place, then they are of the attacks from the Edwards campaign. So what happens if Clinton seeing her own poll numbers dropping decides to respond by attacking Obama. It would seem to me that in that scenario Edwards would be the natural beneficiary. And of course what is Obama to do if Clinton starts attacking him, he will have to respond by counter-attacking against Clinton.
This week (on Thursday Night November 15) at the upcoming Nevada debate to be hosted by CNN we may see the signs of how the Clinton campaign has decided to respond to the signs that her campaign is slipping. After the Philadelphia debate held on October 30, the Clintons seemed surprised by how badly she had been wounded. There was no counter-attacking during the debate and her initial response was a floundering - it was a bad night, it was the unfair media, it was the men ganging up on her.... But there was no focused counter-attack against Edwards or Obama. This week she will obviously be prepared and ready to respond when the criticisms begin.
One key that I will be watching for on Thursday is whether she comes out counter-attacking and who she counter attacks against.