Here it is, after many months of absence, my House rankings (offense only this time). I know you've been holding your breath, so please forgive me for turning your face purple with anticipation.
Because of the many GOP open seats, vulnerable incumbents have gotten less coverage 'round these parts. But you can still spot some of them, especially as the list unfolds.
Let us start the bidding with:
- California 4th - John Doolittle (R) supposedly running for 10th term
PVI: R+11
Outlook: Likely Democratic pickup
As long as the corrupt Doolittle is in the race, Democrat Charlie Brown is way up. At least, that's what the last poll said. But I think we learned in 2006 that corrupt Republicans like to bow out at the last minute. I expect Doolittle will do the same eventually.
Much much more below the fold...
- Ohio 15th - Deborah Pryce (R) retiring after 8 terms
PVI: R+1
Outlook: Lean Democratic pickup
Amazingly, the GOP left Franklin County Commissioner and Dem candidate Mary Jo Kilroy UNOPPOSED for months, allowing her to become the district's presumptive Congresswoman until, mirabile dictu, State Sen. Steve Stivers (R) jumped in early this month after having said no in August. Stivers should keep it competitive with Kilroy, but they let her have 3 months to herself, and that's a lot of fundraising and a lot of name rec to overcome.
- Minnesota 3rd - Jim Ramstad (R) retiring after 9 terms
PVI: R+1
Outlook: Tossup / Lean Dem pickup
With Edina Mayor Jim Hovland's campaign announcement this week, earlier Dem frontrunner State Sen. Terri Bonoff will face a primary. However it turns out, the Republicans are really worried, so much so that they tried to get Ramstad back in the race. State Rep. Erik Paulsen is the sole GOP candidate.
- New Jersey 3rd - Jim Saxton (R) retiring after 12 terms
PVI: D+3
Outlook: Tossup / Lean Dem pickup
State Sen. John Adler (D) was already giving Saxton his stiffest challenge in a while when Saxton announced he was calling it a career. State Sen. Diane Allen is an early announcement on the Republican side. This district went for Gore in 2000 and very narrowly for Bush in 2004.
- New Mexico 1st - Heather Wilson (R) running for the Senate
PVI: D+2
Outlook: Tossup
Finally, Heather Wilson is making that long-anticipated Senate run. Unfortunately for her, her expected primary coronation is not happening as she struggles against the supposedly more conservative Rep. Pearce for the nomination. Let's not even mention how she'll do in the general against Tom Udall. Anyway, this Albuquerque district is open, and it's looking like a race between City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D) and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R).
- Ohio 16th - Ralph Regula (R) retiring after 18 (million) terms
PVI: R+4
Outlook: Tossup
The Republican frontrunner, State Sen. Kirk Schuring, will have to beat Matt Miller in the primary before he faces fellow State Sen. John Boccieri (D) in the general. Boccieri so far has the Dem nomination to himself, and his bio looks solid.
- Illinois 11th - Jerry Weller (R) retiring after 7 terms
PVI: R+1
Outlook: Tossup
State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) is without a primary foe; her presumptive GOP opponent, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, is not. Once things get going, Republicans say they are confident, but if I had to bet at this point it would be on Halvorson.
- Arizona 1st - Rick Renzi (R) retiring after 3 terms
PVI: R+2
Outlook: Tossup
Democrats have a contested primary between ex-State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, former TV anchor Mary Kim Titla, and attorney Howard Shanker. Kirkpatrick is slightly favored in this primary. On the Republican side, no one hot has popped up, but State Rep. Bill Konopnicki is increasingly looking like the frontrunner. Again, if I had to guess I would tilt this to the Dems, especially if the prez nominee is running competitively here.
- Washington 8th - Dave Reichert (R) running for 3rd term
PVI: D+2
Outlook: Tossup
Reichert continues to raise big money from Bush & Cheney while Darcy Burner, a rematch from 2006, matches him almost dollar-for-dollar. The presidential dynamic will be interesting as any competent Democratic prez candidate will carry this district, and Burner came within a hair of winning last time.
- New York 25th - Jim Walsh (R) running for 11th term
PVI: D+3
Outlook: Tossup
Challenger Dan Maffei held Walsh to his closest reelection ever in 2006, at 51-49. As the Democrats will be heavily favored on the presidential level in New York, Walsh will have to work that much harder in a rematch with Maffei.
- North Carolina 8th - Robin Hayes (R) running for 6th term
PVI: R+3
Outlook: Tossup
Larry Kissell came incredibly close in 2006 with little establishment backing, and now the DCCC is behind him. Southern races are harder for Democrats in presidential years (see: Senate elections, 2004), which keeps this firmly in the tossup category.
- Illinois 10th - Mark Kirk (R) running for 5th term
PVI: D+4
Outlook: Tossup
Dan Seals got 47% in 2006 and is running a strong rematch campaign. Primary challenger Jay Footlik was expected to give him a scare, but Seals' internals have him up a stunning 58-6. For the general, Illinois Democrats will have a lot on their plate, but this will be a priority (along with the 11th and to a lesser degree the 14th and 18th). The prez nominee should win here without much difficulty.
- New York 29th - Randy Kuhl (R) running for 3rd term
PVI: R+5
Outlook: Tossup
Like the last four races, this is a rematch from '06. Eric Massa held Kuhl to a razor-thin margin, and the only reason this sits below New York 25th is that this is clearly a more Republican district. The presidential dynamic will thus do little for Massa, but he is still running quite strong.
- New Jersey 7th - Mike Ferguson (R) running for 5th term
PVI: R+1
Outlook: Tossup
What's this? Why, another rematch. State Assemblywoman Linda Stender came a lot closer than I or most expected her to (49-48) and is back. This time the New Jersey Dems will have more resources to put in, with the lack of a top-tier Senate race. And this is the kind of moderate district our prez nominee will have to win to do well nationwide.
- Ohio 1st - Steve Chabot (R) running for 8th term
PVI: R+1
Outlook: Tossup / Lean GOP hold
Chabot is tenacious, and clearly knows how to beat back a tough challenge (as he proved in 1998, 2000, and 2006). But Dems are genuinely crowing about State House Minority Leader Steve Driehaus, and Dem prez contenders are polling well in Ohio.
- Connecticut 4th - Chris Shays (R) running for 11th full term
PVI: D+5
Outlook: Tossup / Lean GOP hold
Shays too is a survivor. Somehow he managed to withstand the 30-seat slaughter of 2006 while his two supposedly safer Connecticut Republican colleagues fell, one by a 12-point margin in the state's most conservative district. Democrat Jim Himes looks solid and should be well-funded, but I'm not gonna jump just yet given Shays' history. The good news: he's retiring in or before 2010.
- Michigan 7th - Tim Walberg (R) running for 2nd term
PVI: R+2
Outlook: Tossup / Lean GOP hold
State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer should win the Dem primary against 2006 candidate Sharon Renier, and the DCCC is excited about this recruit. This remains a Republican-leaning district in a swing state, but Schauer should run well ahead of past Democrats in this district. Michigan Dems will put a lot into this race and the 9th, and if Carl Levin's landslide reelection produces some coattails that will be good too.
- Michigan 9th - Joe Knollenberg (R) running for 9th term
PVI: R+0
Outlook: Tossup / Lean GOP hold
Democrat Nancy Skinner held Knollenberg to 52-46, his closest reelection in many years. Now she faces a primary against attorney Rhonda Ross and former State Sen. Gary Peters, but as I said the Michigan Democrats are really fired up about this race and will put a lot into it.
- Alaska At Large - Don Young (R) running for 18th full term
PVI: R+14
Outlook: Tossup / Lean GOP hold
A shocking poll not long ago showed Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading incumbent-since-the-big-bang Don Young by several points. I had to take this poll with a few pounds of salt, but if it is true then this race needs to be higher up than it is. So why don't I move it up? Because...well...it's Alaska.
- Illinois 6th - Peter Roskam (R) running for 2nd term
PVI: R+3
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
You should be familiar with this district. It was the most famous district in the country last year. While Democrat Tammy Duckworth ran extremely well (getting 49% on election night), she was always hurt by an intraparty split left over from the primaries. This time, luckily, there is no such split, as both Christine Cegelis and Duckworth are totally behind former State Homeland Security Director Jill Morgenthaler. Morgenthaler seems to be off to a good start, and rumors that the Dems were giving up on IL-06 have died rather suddenly.
- West Virginia 2nd - Shelley Moore Capito (R) running for 5th term
PVI: R+?
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
Cook doesn't yet think this is competitive, which is why I don't know the PVI. I do know that PVI's are pretty useless in West Virginia as they rarely reflect real-world Democratic performance. Capito is getting a headline-grabbing challenge from State Sen. John Unger, and while the presidential dynamic favors Capito, the West Virginia Dems really have no other race to focus on...and that bodes really well for Unger.
- Colorado 4th - Marilyn Musgrave (R) running for 4th term
PVI: R+9
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
Musgrave should be safe in a seat with a Republican performance of 59%, but somehow she never is. The Democrat this year is Betsy Markey, who is said to be running respectably so far. A lot of attention in Colorado will be directed upward, to the presidential race and the tight Senate race, but national party GOTV in the state can't hurt Markey.
- Missouri 6th - Sam Graves (R) running for 5th term
PVI: R+5
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
Graves is receiving his first stiff challenge since being elected in 2000, from former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Few headlines have been made since Barnes' announcement, but she is thought to be the toughest candidate the Dems could have found.
- New Mexico 2nd - Steve Pearce (R) running for the Senate
PVI: R+6
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
This should theoretically be lower, but State Rep. Joe Cervantes is a solid and well-known Dem candidate, and he isn't the only solid and well-known one either. The Republicans are absent so far but will undoubtedly have a primary coming. The fact is, Tom Udall is looking good in the Senate race and if the Democrats win the White House they will probably doing so with the help of New Mexico.
- Pennsylvania 18th - Tim Murphy (R) running for 4th term
PVI: R+2
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
Murphy is supposedly being challenged by Bethany Hafer, daughter of former State Treas. Barbara Hafer and a top-tier challenger. But I have heard no actual news since Hafer's announcement. If she actually starts making headlines, this will be a very hot race.
- Ohio 2nd - Jean Schmidt (R) running for 2nd full term
PVI: R+13
Outlook: Lean GOP hold
Yes, I want Mean Jean gone too. And Dem Vic Wulsin will surely give her another close race (it was 51-49 in 2006!). But the presidential dynamic alone will add another couple point to Schmidt's numbers, making it that much harder.
So them's the top 25. Later to come: House 2008 defense. I know, I'm so innovative and unpredictable!