As an Indiana resident I have a senator who is standing with the democrats (Bayh) and one standing with the republicans (Luger).
I am drafting a letter to each (it'll basically be the same letter with minor changes) but want to get opinions on whether I am making persuasive arguments and/or what else I should add.
I am trying to be cordial and authoritative. If you can review it and give me opinions on what to add, remove or change I would appreciate it.
Please feel free to function as critics, I want to address as many holes in my arguments as I possibly can before I send this letter.
I think my numbers with oil exports are wrong, so feel free to criticize them (I just took the number of barrels exported per day, multiplied it by ($)60, then multiplied that by 365). Plus the Bush admin may be doing more on N. Korea's Chemical & Biological weapons programs than I know.
Feel free to leave a tip or a reccomendation if you like it, I want to get as many ideas on what to change, keep or add as possible. For example, I didn't even think of adding the oil part until a few hours ago. So I'm sure other people have great ideas too.
This is my first real letter to a senator. Before this, just email & calls.
Dear Mr. Bayh:
I realize you are a busy man but please take a few minutes out of your busy day to listen to one of your constitutents who wanted to communicate with you. I want to congratulate you and the other 52 senators who voted Yea on H.R.4156. I feel the Iraq war is unjustified, destructive and hurtful to national security as well as global security, I feel the Bush Administration needs to be stood up to and I think we need drastic change in how we are fighting the terror war as I want to explain in this letter. I want to explain why I think you and the other 52 senators should stay firm and strong on this issue. This letter is very long, but I felt that I needed a long letter to express myself properly. Because of this I'm going to summarize my points in the first two pages:
- Bush and Cheney have ignored and manipulated intelligence before and are doing it to this day. They ignored intelligence regarding an imminent attack on 9/11 and have manipulated intelligence regarding Iraq and Iran. Intelligence is the cornerstone of counterterrorism and an administration that ignores and manipulates it is fighting the war on terror blind. No government can fight a counterterror war as long as it ignores and manipulates its intelligence agencies.
- The Bush Administration is fighting a war in Iraq that according to the National Intelligence Estimate is emboldening and strengthening terrorists across the globe
- The Bush administration is helping Sudan, Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela earn an extra billion dollars a day in inflated oil prices due to our war in Iraq and our saber rattling. War with Iran will help earn these countries hundreds of billions of dollars more. Search the phrase 'High Oil Prices Spur Massive Wealth Shift' on a search engine to see an article on this subject.
- Because Bush and the GOP party are driving up the cost of oil, people all over the globe are suffering from higher costs for fuel, food and heating oil. Economies all over the world are suffering and this could lead to strife and possibly war over energy supplies. The ethnic cleansing in Darfur, for example, is driven in part by an attempt to obtain the 500,000 barrels of oil produced there every day. At the same time our enemies like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are seeing their economies flourish. Imports of luxury autos like Ferraris, Mercedes Benz, Audis and Porsche to the middle east have increased dramatically. Ferrari claims they cannot keep up with the new demand. Mercedes is expecting a 25% increase in exports to the middle east over last year.
- If America spent a fraction of the 1.2 billion a day it spends on inflated oil supplies on renewable energy, we could be energy independent in ten years. The Apollo Alliance claims for an annual investment of $30 billion a year for ten years (which will grow the economy by 1.4 trillion and save $284 in reduced energy costs) we could be energy independent by 2017. Instead we spend that $30 billion on inflated oil costs every month.
- If we took another fraction, say $30 billion, and put it towards a global anti-poverty campaign we could rebuild our reputation enough to regain the support of our allies and the support of Muslims all over the world. TerrorFreeTomorrow reports support for Bin Laden dropping by 50-60% in Indonesia and Pakistan when the U.S. gives humanitarian aid to help them deal with natural disasters. If we spent in one year what we spend in one month on inflated oil prices we could not only save millions of lives, build a global middle class and rewin the respect of our allies, but we can turn over a hundred million of muslims away from extremism and towards our side. They would de facto function as our eyes and ears on the ground, reporting suspicious activity and looking out for our interests in the terror war.
- The Bush administration is planning a war on Iran, which will further inflame muslim rage, alienate the US from her allies, destroy our reputation, bog down the military and result in a humanitarian disaster. It will also cause even more wealth transfers away from poor and wealthy countries and into the coffers of middle eastern countries.
- Despite the assertions of the administration, Iran is 10 years away from a nuclear weapon. Not only that, but they have had chemical weapons since 1982 and have never given them to terrorists. There is no reason to believe they would give nuclear weapons (which they will not have until 2016 or so) to terrorists. Iran can and should be dealt with diplomatically and intelligently. Not with our current strategy.
- The Bush administration is ignoring the risk of North Korea in proliferation of chemical and biological weapons. North Korea is a far bigger threat to proliferation and has a history of selling anything, including missile technology, to make money.
- The Bush administration's hawkish war policies may end up causing the collapse of Pakistan, with thousands of tons of chemical and biological WMD falling into the hands of terrorists as a result. Luckily their nuclear weapons are stored safely.
- The Bush administration has bogged down and demoralized our military. We need our military moralized and energized, ready to respond to domestic threats and we need our special forces and air forces to be able to perform surgical strikes all over the world, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- The Bush administration is holding 150,000 military personnel and their families virtually hostage, threatening to deprive them of jobs a week before Christmas in (according to Dana Perino) an admitted attempt to intimidate the democratic party into becoming a rubber stamp party. They are using the military as a tool to violate balance of power and to intimidate the legislative branch into becoming a rubber stamp for the executive branch.
- The Bush administration earns failing grades in all aspects of counterterrorism according to the counterterrorism research agency the Council on Global Terrorism. It may have been funny when Bush referred to himself as a 'C student' to the graduating class at Yale University in 2001, but it is not so funny when he is a 'D+ student' in the war on terror according to counterterrorism think tanks.
First off let me say I am proud to have you as my senator due to your willingness to stand with senate democrats in refusing to act as a blank check for the Iraq war. Although I realize we need to secure Iraq by training their security forces I realize this war has been a disaster. It was based on manipulated intelligence, false premises and inept leadership. We need to approach it not by ‘staying the course’, a course set by a fairly irresponsible leader (as I will explain below) but by looking at other examples of civil war started by ethnic and religious strife and learning lessons from them on what to do and what not to do. Examples of nations and civil wars to learn lessons on what to do and not to do include Yugoslavia, Mozanbique, the DRC, and dozens of others of countries which have faced civil wars based on ethnic and religious hatred. While I feel that a pullout without any attempt at diplomacy would be irresponsible and dangerous, I feel that we have enough experience in dealing with ethnic and religious civil wars to learn from the last fifty years and devise a plan that can work to help stabilize Iraq so the 60-72% of people polled who are either civilians or serving in the military who want us to leave can see our military come home.
This war is making terrorism worse according to the national intelligence estimate. In April of 2006 a report called Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States was written showing the Iraq war is fueling extremism and terrorist movements in the Muslim world. The Bush administration’s response to this fact was to censor it and try to release a rubber stamped NIE report.
You have to understand that there are millions of Americans just like me who are horrified that not only were we led into a war based on false premises, but that once the NIE found out that the war was making terrorism worse, the executive branch tried to censor them. This is truly, truly horrifying for our national security and as an ‘outsider’ to the beltway let me assure you that your vote of refusing to act as a rubber stamp is a source of pride. We cannot allow a president who manipulates and ignores intelligence in the war on terror to have a blank check and mandate to do whatever he pleases.
We had numerous warnings of 9/11 before it occurred. After it occurred we the people were lied to and told there were no warnings. For a list of warnings Mr. Bayh please enter the phrase ‘complete 9/11 timeline cooperative research’ into a search engine. Then click on ‘Key Warnings’. We cannot allow an administration so willing to ignore and manipulate intelligence to do whatever it pleases. Terrorism is too serious of an issue.
We are literally horrified and totally demoralized that our executive branch considers intelligence agencies to be organizations to manipulate and harass rather than sources of information. Terrorism is an issue of massive importance, and we need to fight it as effectively and intelligently as possible.
We need change in Iraq. I support the propositions of the Council on Global Terrorism and Terror Free Tomorrow. We need to start winning hearts and minds in the terror war. By doing so we not only drain the pool of potential terrorists, but we create a massive grassroots network of hundreds of millions of muslims who are willing to report suspicious activity who might otherwise look the other way. One of the easiest ways to win hearts and minds is with a meaningful anti-poverty campaign in the developing world according to terror free tomorrow (they report massive changes in hearts and minds in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia as a result of our humanitarian aid after natural disasters), one of the easiest ways to lose hearts and minds is to ignore that xenophobia is one of the biggest causes of terrorism. Like it or not (and I am a strong Israel supporter), xenophobia is tied into many Mideast terror movements. US troops in Saudi Arabia, the USSR invasion of Afghanistan, the creation of Israel and US troops in Iraq have all made terrorism far worse. While some of these events were necessary (again, Israel has a right to exist and I am a strong supporter) this does not negate the fact that we need to treat inflaming muslim opinion by aggrevating xenophobia as an absolute last resort. It may be necessary at times, but should be treated as a last resort.
Although I am an amateur with a background in science and not foreign policy, it seems obvious to me that we need to fight the terror war based on strong intelligence cooperation among domestic and international intelligence organizations, winning hearts and minds, actually listening to our intelligence agencies (instead of manipulating them), use of strategically placed special forces and air forces around the world to engage in rapid, surgical strikes of terror targets and to end the pattern of inflaming muslim opinion by ignoring the role of xenophobia in terrorism while at the same time learning whatever lessons we can from success stories in dealing with civil wars in other countries.
The Bush/Cheney administration has done the opposite most of these issues. They have a history of manipulating, defrauding and ignoring intelligence. They have placed our special forces and air forces in Iraq when they are needed in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They have both won us and cost us hearts and minds. The Bush administration was in charge when US aid went to Pakistan for their earthquake recovery ad to Indonesia for their tsunami recovery and they were in charge of the invasion of Iraq.
Please forgive my presumptuousness in discussing terrorism so frankly. As I have said, I am not an expert (I am a scientist by trade). But the info I am using to form my opinions comes from various terrorism devoted think tanks and terrorism experts like Colonel David Hunt or ex-Bin Laden task force manager Michael Scheuer.
Please continue to have the courage to stand up for America. The Bush administration is doing a horrible job on our national security. The rates of mental illness, desertion and suicide among our military personnel are at extremely high levels, some the highest levels in decades. Our military is drawn so thin that they cannot respond to a domestic threat. Now the administration is threatening to lay off 150,000 civilian workers before Christmas as a way of intimidating democrats into becoming a rubber stamp party again. This despite the fact that they have $471 billion in war funds given to them on November 9th. Dana Perino even said in a press conference whenvquestioned if this attempt to lay off 150,000 military personnel was an attempt to intimidate the democratic party that 'That's exactly what that was.'
How can you expect Americans like myself to be proud of ourselves when our leadership does this? Balance of power exists for a reason Mr. Bayh, and attempting to hold military families hostage by laying them off before christmas in an attempt to intimidate the legislative branch into becoming a rubber stamp for the executive branch is truly disgusting. Maybe you do not share my revulsion, but I am not willing to sugar coat it. As I said before, that $471 billion contains funds to continue the war. The founders did not intend the US military to be used as a token to manipulate one branch of government into functioning as a rubber stamp for another branch.
And please do not let us go to war with Iran. Iran is 10 years away from nuclear weapons. Iran has shown a willingness to negotiate and if the entire world stands firm in demanding a non-military solution to the Iranian nuclear program, Iran will likely stand down. Not only that, but they have had chemical weapons for over 25 years and have never given those chemical weapons to a terrorist agency. A simple, common sense question to ask is ‘if Iran is going to give a nuclear weapon to a terrorist agency, why haven’t they done so with their chemical weapons stockpile in the last 25 years?" Despite what we hear in America, Iran is a nation of intelligent moderates. Khatami the moderate won the previous presidential election with 77% of the vote (no president in US history has ever won 77% of the vote). The only reason Ahmadinejad was elected was because all moderates and reformers were disqualified before the elections. And Ahmadinejad was elected as an economic populist, not a saber rattler. He was elected on economic policy, not foreign policy. If the war in Iraq has been a disaster the war in Iran will be worse. They have three times the population, a military that has not faced a decade of sanctions, a public more wiling to stand by its leadership in a time of war while our military is drawn thin and demoralized, world opinion is already against us, the Muslim world is already inflamed and the public is sick of war. A war with Iran will be far worse than a war with Iraq.
As we speak Dick Cheney is attempting to intimidate the NIE again according to ex-CIA officials like Philip Giraldi, who are claiming that drafts are being written and rewritten to reflect the hawish agenda of Cheney. Not only that but because our saber rattling is strengthening extremist movements in the Muslim world I fear a war with Iran may lead to the downfall of the Pakistani government. Although the US has secured the nuclear weapons in Pakistan and Bush deserves credit for that, we have not, to my knowledge, secured the thousands of tons of chemical and biological weapons the Pakistani military possesses. If saber rattling and immature war with Iran leads to the fall of Pakistan, and as a result thousands of tons of chemical and biological WMD falling into the hands of terrorist sympathizers America will pay dearly.
Another problem with our current Iran policy is that our saber rattling is driving up the price of oil, making Iran richer.
In fact there is speculation from James Surowiecki of the New Yorker that this is Ahmadinejad's motivation for his own saber rattling, to drive the price of oil up. Every dollar increase in a barrel of oil earns Iran an extra three million dollars a day.
Before the Iraq war oil was $30 a barrel. Due to the war and the saber rattling between Iran and the US it is now nearly $100 a barrel, oil prices have been an almost vertical spike since 9/11 and the Iraq war.
Everyday, due to the saber rattling and willingness to fall into Ahmadinejad's probable trap (of saber rattling to get rich on oil) the Bush administration is helping countries like Syria, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Venezuela earn billions of dollars off of inflated prices on oil exports.
The Bush administration is helping Iran earn $210 million dollars a day in extra revenue from oil exports (assuming the price of oil would be $40/barrel instead of $100/barrel without an Iraq war and without the saber rattling). With their economy of only $200 billion we are adding an extra $77 billion in GDP.
If we really want to scare Iran we should pull out of Iraq, end our saber rattling and let the price of oil drop back down to $40/barrel. After that we need to help the developed and developing world (including China and India) world pursue a policy of energy indepdence from fossil fuels backed up with the threat of sanctions on Iranian oil. Over 83 million barrels of oil a day are consumed, Imagine if we engaged in policies that helped the price drop down to $40/barrel (saving the world about five billion dollars a day in energy costs) and put a fraction of that 5 billion/day into renewable energy. That would truly frighten Iran, not to mention Saudi Arabia (where 15 of the 19 hijackers came from and where much funds to support terror come from)
As long as the only threat Iran faces from Bush and Cheney is an extra $77 billion dollars in oil revenue a year I do not see any progress on their WMD program. Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are making an extra $573 million and $141 million dollars a day respectively due to higher oil prices due to this war and our saber rattling with Iran (this assuming the price of oil drops to $40/barrel if we end the war and the saber rattling, a fair assumption).
North Korea is a far bigger threat to proliferation. They have no respect for international law, have sold slaves, counterfeit money and goods, illegal drugs, and weapons on the international market to anyone with the money to buy them. They are a desperately poor nation with the worst human rights record on earth that will sell anything to make money. They have even used their diplomats as drug couriers. They have chemical, biological and as of 2006 nuclear weapons.
Please, I am begging you, to fight this war on terrorism intelligently. While the bush administration intimidates the NIE, ignores intelligence reports, alienates our allies, ignores North Korea, inflames Muslim opinion, bogs down the military and our special forces and looks for excuses to invade Iran terrorism is getting worse. We are losing the war on terror beause of the Bush administration. If you do not believe me enter the phrase ‘council on global terrorism report card’ into a search engine and see for yourself. This think tank of terrorism experts is giving America Cs, Ds and Fs in almost all areas of counterterrorism.
We need change and we need competence. As a citizen and not a politician I have no real power to bring that about, but you as a senator can stand for these principles. I am asking you to have courage and stand firm. If you do I will do whatever I can to get you reelected in 2010 including voter drives, donating money and spreading word of mouth that you had the courage to do what was right when it mattered most.
If Osama Bin Laden wanted America to serve his interests rather than our own he could not create a situation better than the one we have now. We are empowering terrorists, shifting money away from ourselves and to Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran, alienating our allies, ignoring terrorism, alienating muslims, demoralizing and bogging down our military, and losing the war on both terrorism and WMD proliferation. Please, as a senator, do something. Stand firm and stand up for America.
A concerned Citizen,
(name)