Since wealthy NY businessman
Andrew Saul's abrupt withdrawal last week from the GOP primary to challenge incumbent
John Hall (D, NY-19), supposedly due to "personal reasons," (including the very personal reality that the guy may have accepted a pantload of ethically-challenged campaign contributions per the
NY Times piece which ran just a couple of days prior to his withdrawal from the race)
http://www.nytimes.com/....
rumors have run rampant throughout the area's political intelligentsia with regard to whom, if anyone, would step in to fill his shoes.
See link to today's NY Daily News piece, below the fold...the story gets interesting...
A list of approximately 8-10 possibilities surfaced--and most names just as quickly vanished--during the week, including everyone from former White House Press Secretary
Ari Fleischer,
Sue Kelly, the incumbent Republican whom Hall defeated in 2006, and even
Emily Pataki, the former Governor's daughter.
The NY Daily News has a piece out today, which they just updated over the past hour, which now brings that "list" down to three--nope...hold the phone...it's now back up to four according to the latest update--candidates: 1.) Assemblyman Greg Ball, 2.) Orange County Executive Ed Diana, 3.) investment banker and very close Pataki confidante Michael Finnegan, and, 4.) as of the last hour, former Giuliani and Pataki Tax and Finance Commissioner Andrew Eristoff.
http://www.nydailynews.com/....
Ball and Diana aren't rushing to schedule any press conferences, at least according to what I'm hearing, so that leaves Finnegan and Eristoff, if you don't include ultra-right-winger Michael Kieran Lalor, who just officially announced this past weekend.
And, while a Finnegan, Diana or Eristoff candidacy would certainly be formidable (sorry Greg, but you need a little more maturity), the calendar's ticking away.
There's a key omission from the Daily News "update" today and that's the minor detail that, while Eristoff's family may live in the district (they publish a weekly newspaper in Cornwall), Eristoff claimed his residency in New York City, as of his official State of NY bio from about a year ago. So, there's this somewhat minor detail of the guy having to move into the district if he wants to run! Details...details...details...
http://www.tax.state.ny.us/...
From where I'm sitting, the GOP must be taking a long look here, and they're seeing some facts of life that are rather intimidating, in terms of someone who may just be the Democrat's most underestimated rising star in the Northeast. At the end of the day, Hall's already raised over $1 million for next year's race. He's never lost an election, and he's done all of this while always running on supposedly-Republican turf. And, the general consensus is he's already doing an outstanding job of representing the 19th District in D.C. so far. So, as of this writing, virtually all the pundits are now classifying NY-19 as "Leans Democratic."
The GOP may really be screwing the proverbial pooch here. And, it may be just one of many new indications of just how truly poorly they're doing, nationwide. Fellow Kossack, DAVIDNYC put it much better than yours truly in his story here from last week:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Would love to hear from other CD's where similar situations are also playing out. With the Republicans feverishly looking for viable candidates, it now looks to me like there's little or no bench on the GOP side of the field this year, in terms of others waiting in the wings. That's not to say that we should ever underestimate any opposition, no matter where it's coming from. But, given the climate of the day, at this point, if someone's walking away from their campaign, it's almost too late to salvage the opportunity. And, the GOP, with scarce human resources, and even fewer funds, may be coming to the same conclusion, especially in the deeper blue states, like NY.