Clemson University released a poll yesterday that showed South Carolina voters souring on both Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, with support dropping 7 points for Hillary and 9 points for Rudy since the previous Clemson poll in August.
Hillary and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead-heat with the support of 19 percent for Hillary and 17 percent for Obama, but a full 49 percent of Democratic voters say they are still undecided. Margin of error on the poll is 4.5 percent.
On the Republican side, Rudy and Fred Thompson led the August poll. Rudy's tanking with only 9 percent support in November. Freddy has 15 percent. Romney now leads with 17 percent and Huckabee is surging, going from 6 percent support in August to 13 percent in November. Among Republican voters, 28 percent are undecided (8 percent more undecided than in August.)
I've been saying all along that I just couldn't see South Carolina voters being that enthused about Hillary. (I am not a Hillary hater, don't think she deserves a fraction of the crap she's gotten for decades, but I just can't warm up to her as a candidate, either.) I also just couldn't see her getting South Carolina voters excited. Bill seems so much more warm and friendly and Southern than Hillary, and those qualities play well in the South. (I know, not a good reason to vote for someone for President, but still...)
Anyway, I think the poll shows I'm right. It basically says that people are paying more attention now than they did in August, going less on name recognition and more on information they've picked up, and that support for everyone is still soft. Fully half of Democrats are still undecided and Republicans are growing more undecided as time goes by and they pay more attention to the election.
Clemson polled 900 voters, half of whom ID'd themselves as Republicans and half as Democrats, all of whom voted in at least one of the last four elections. You can see the entire poll at: www.clemson.edu
Here's the current Democratic list, with numbers from August, then November, then percentage change:
Hillary Clinton 26 percent 19 percent -7 percent
Barack Obama 16 percent 17 percent +1 percent
John Edwards 10 percent 12 percent +2 percent
Joe Biden 3 percent 2 percent -1 percent
Bill Richardson 2 percent 1 percent -1 percent
Undecided 49 percent
For the Republicans:
Fred Thompson 19 percent 15 percent -4 percent
Rudy Giuliani 18 percent 9 percent -9 percent
John McCain 15 percent 11 percent -4 percent
Mitt Romney 11 percent 17 percent +6 percent
Mike Huckabee 6 percent 13 percent +7 percent
Ron Paul 1 percent 6 percent +5 percent
Undecided 28 percent
A whopping 65 percent of Republicans said they weren't sure who'd they support in the actual primary in January, while 51 percent of Democrats have not made up their minds.