In the wake of all of our good news from last night, I cheerfully bring you some more: in a pretty red district, eight-term Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett (MD-6) is in serious trouble.
In a poll taken the last weekend in October, only 29% of voters favored Roscoe's re-election. And Democrat Andrew Duck beats him in the head-to-head.
A 29% re-elect number.
As a friend of mine said when I told him: "29? That dude's underwater!"
Join me for more under the fold.
(Caveat: I am a consultant for the Andrew Duck campaign.)
Poll basics:
Whitman Insight Strategies (D) for Duck for Congress. 10/27-29. 400 likely voters. MoE 4.9%. No previous poll.
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
Satisfied 25.1%
Dissatisfied 69.2%
Don’t know 5.7%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as President of the United States?
Approve 37.8%
Disapprove 54.5%
Don’t know 7.7%
In the next election for the United States House of Representatives, will you definitely vote to reelect Congressman Roscoe Bartlett or would you consider voting for someone else?
Definitely vote to reelect 29.6%
Consider someone else 57.4%
Don’t know 13.0%
Two short bios were then read to the respondents, comprised of statements each candidate had made about themselves, either on their websites or in press releases.
Thinking about this information again, in next November’s election for the U.S. House of Representatives, who would you vote for?
Andrew Duck 39.3%
Roscoe Bartlett 38.0%
Other/Specify 0.8%
Would not vote 1.3%
Don’t know 20.3%
Sample: 50% R, 39% D, 11% U. Self-identified as 45% conservative, 35% moderate, 9% liberal.
This is a district that Bush won in 2004 64%-34%. Duck ran against Bartlett last time and did better than any Democrat in a mid-term since Beverly Byron held the seat in 1990.
It's clear that Roscoe is done for this time, if Duck has the resources to simply tell his story.
Andrew is a 20-year Army veteran, rising from PfC to Captain, including three tours in Bosnia and one in Iraq. He retired from the Army in frustration over the way the war was being conducted.
He wants an end to combat operations and a phased withdrawal from Iraq, universal health care, a 10-year plan for energy independence, and increased funding and support for veterans.
Bartlett, on the other hand, not only voted against SCHIP four times, but bragged about it in a press release. He's been down the line with Bush, wants to abolish the Department of Education and withdraw from the UN. He was also one of several co-chairs of a bizarre event where Rev. Sun Myung Moon was declared "Savior, Messiah and Returning Lord."
Check Andrew out and show him some love at http://www.duckforcongress.com (site is undergoing some freshening).
He's also sitting across the room from me right now making fundraising calls, so if you want to ask him a question, I'll shout it out and get you an answer.