Here are some thoughts on last night's special elections.
OH-05 yielded a disappointing result, certainly. I didn't think we'd win the district, but I thought we had a decent shot at it, and I certainly expected a narrower margin than 14 points (almost exactly the same result as in 2006). Evidence from the last week certainly seemed to indicate that the race would be significantly closer than it was.
That said, the NRCC outspent us 2-1 to hold Robin Weirauch to the same margin she received in 2006, which was a historically bad year for Republicans. She received that in a year when Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown were winning landslide victories across the state. Last year was the worst year for Republicans in OH-05 since 1982, and they had to spend $500,000 just to tread water there.
Let's not forget: $500,000 is a luxury they can't afford. As of last filing the NRCC had $2.6 million in the bank, $3.6 million in debt. They just spent nearly 20% of what cash they had to hold us to a historically great performance in a deeply red district.
They won't have the luxury of outspending us 2-1 next year; given the money advantage we currently enjoy, it seems more than likely we'll be able to outspend them across the board.
The Republicans are still trying to pretend that 2006 was an aberration. Yet they have to go all-out, it seems, to hold the ground they already have.
Yes, I was hoping for a better performance in this district. Yes, I'm disappointed.
But if the Republicans have to outspend us 2-1 to prevent us from gaining ground on a historically great year, I am still very optimistic about 2008.
If they have to waste such large sums of money to protect OH-05, I can't even imagine what they'll have to do in more naturally competitive districts like NM-01 or IL-10.
It's odd that while this district received quite a bit of national attention, no party leaders, Democratic or Republican, went into OH-05. Boehner's absence from the district (and presence in VA-01) has been well publicized. We did have some big names campaign there, like Strickland and Brown, but no national party leaders.
Speaking of VA-01, I'm not at all surprised that Wittman won easily, although I am surprised that Phil Forgit appears to have slightly underperformed Kerry in the district. The NRCC had to spend here, too, just to be safe, and that is some consolation.