2 new polls out of Iowa today with different results.
Link to article
PDF link to Lee/Research2000 poll
Conducted 12/10 - 12/13, with 500 Likely Voters, margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent
Obama 33
Clinton 24
Edwards 24
Richardson 9
Biden 3
Research2000 also polled this race exactly a month ago for KCCI-TV and had it Clinton 27, Obama 25, Edwards 21 at that time. So it looks like Obama has had some significant movement since then, which is consistent with prior polls.
The other poll has the race much closer. This is the first time they've polled the race, so there are no trends to look at.
PDF link to Hotline/Diageo poll
Conducted 12/07 - 12/12, with 569 Likely Voters, margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent
Obama 27
Clinton 27
Edwards 22
Richardson 8
Biden 5
As for second choices, Research2000 shows Obama getting the most love:
Obama 29
Edwards 25
Clinton 21
Richardson 11
Biden 4
Hotline has Edwards and Obama at the top when it comes to second choices, with Hillary a bit further down:
Edwards 25
Obama 23
Clinton 18
Richardson 12
Biden 9
Some hope for candidates not doing well in the polls:
The poll also indicated an unsettled electorate, with 23 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of Republicans saying they were likely or very likely to change their minds before the caucuses. Only a third of Democrats, 33 percent, and just more than a quarter of Republicans, 27 percent, said they were not at all likely to change their minds.
And as these polls show, it's very hard to poll Iowa. No matter what they show, I feel it's anyone's game.