At this time 4 years ago we all know that Howard Dean was the overwhelming frontrunner among the Democratic candidates. A month before the Iowa caucus Howard Dean had a lead in every single state being polled. Four years later, those who wish to avoid a Hillary Clinton nomination have been praying for several things: that once the voters got to know her better they would turn away, that once we got past name-recognition-only polling she would fade, or maybe that the excitement of an Obama candidacy and the desire for change would overpower the "experience" factor. If you are a Hillary supporter you are thrilled that she has held strong this long with the steady hands of political hacks...I mean "operatives."
The mainstream media, which we all know can’t get enough of the horse race, also can’t stay on the same story for too long. The insurgent Dean who burst onto the national scene and changed the way politics is done was a good story...for a year. And so is the infallible Hillary Clinton. But it won’t last. The media is LOOKING...BEGGING for a change in narrative. Any story, no matter how insignificant could be the match that lights the fuse... and it could happen any day now.
There are a few lessons the Democratic candidates should have learned from 2004. First, primaries can be a tricky game, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. You have to follow trends very closely to understand how they work. In 2004 Gephardt took shots at Dean which put Dean on the defensive. Iowans don’t react well to negative attacks so Gephardt and Dean’s battle made way for Kerry and Edwards.
The lesson for 2008: If Edwards takes the biggest swings at Hillary, will the real beneficiary be Obama? There is a good chance. Obama is already surging in Iowa, and that momentum very well could carry him.
The other reason Hillary supporters should be worried? In Iowa 2nd choices matter much more than 1st choices. Hillary is almost no one’s second choice. If Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich, and Biden supporters fail to meet the 15 % threshold, their second choices will almost all go to Obama or Edwards, which is a daunting prospect for Senator Clinton’s Iowa campaign.
If Edwards wins in Iowa his campaign will stay alive and live to fight another round, he will rise in NH and his somewhat strong support in his home state of South Carolina could sure up. He may make it to February 5th but with so many states at play the money race many put him out of the game, unless the campaign can turn the post Iowa excitement into dollars.
If Obama wins in Iowa...watch out Hillary! I think that in their heart of hearts many Democrats (even cynical ones) want a reason to fall for Obama. Many of us, myself included, want this man to be the man we saw at the convention in 2004. We know he has real intellectual depth and policy substance, but we have been let down by a tepid and cautious campaign that could have been revolutionary...but there is still time left.
Prediction: If New Hampshire is close enough in the days leading up to Iowa (within 10-15 points)...which it already is...Iowa could completely change the winner. Hillary has unbelievable support in the early polls, but it’s what we call "weak support". If Obama and Edwards take some early states, wait for the progressives in California and elsewhere to "be freed" to vote with their hearts. Those voting for Hillary because of "inevitability" or "experience" or a false sense of electability ("she knows how to take on the Republicans") might be the first to jump to Obama or Edwards.
New Hampshire and Iowa DO NOT like being told who they are going to vote for. Will there be a Hillary backlash in the early states that turns the race for the Democratic nomination on it’s head? One thing is for sure: the mainstream media, and I think in their hearts all true progressives and even a good deal of old-school disaffected Democrats, are just WAITING for a change in narrative. The candidates have finally begun to battle it out and differentiate themselves for early primary voters. The Americans who have seen Hillary up close for the longest period of time (those in Iowa) have the strongest doubts. The charge that she is dishonest, corrupt, and disingenuous is starting to sick. If you are tired of the same old story line, you don’t have long to wait. The change in narrative is coming any day now...