Of course not personally, but Edwards does have a substantial financial problem if he continues to compete against Obama and Clinton. Edwards' personal fortune cannot help him out because of his acceptance of the $50 million spending cap during the primaries (through to the Democratic National Convention in late August).
This topic has been discussed much by Kos and others on this site, but I am not sure it has received as much attention as it should in Iowa. Here is a recent Iowa LTE on the subject:
A better choice for change
12/25/2007
Iowans are looking for real change, and we have two strong "change candidates" to choose from: U.S. Sen. Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards. But only one of them is likely to endure beyond Iowa as a serious challenger to the establishment candidate, Senator Hillary Clinton.
Obama is the better candidate and will make the better president. Obama has the fresher vision, he offers more hope, and he has proven he can get things done. Unlike Edwards, Obama has been a successful fundraiser and has the organization and following to run strong campaigns in other states. Even without money from lobbyists and PACs, Obama has substantially out-raised the Clinton machine. Like it or not (and I don't), money makes a difference.
It appears to me that Edwards gave up when he accepted public campaign financing, which limits his total primary spending to $50 million, a small fraction of what Senator Kerry spent in his unsuccessful challenge to George Bush. If Edwards were to be our nominee, he would likely be broke from March through August and unable to defend himself against Republican swift boating.
Although I very strongly feel Barack Obama stands out as the exceptional, once-in-a-generation candidate, I respect all of our Democratic candidates, their staffs and supporters. It has been an awesome privilege to host them, and they deserve a great turnout on Jan. 3.
The Obama campaign released a lengthy power point on their spin on the primary contests, and Talking Points Memo has it available here.
The bottom line from the Obama memo:
Total Amount John Edwards Can Spend between January 3rd and the Democratic National Convention, August 25, 2008:
$50,000,000 = Estimated Total Limit
- $32,745,300 = estimated Expenditures through January 3rd
= $17,254,700
That does not leave much for the expensive advertising markets in California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. And then what?
I have heard Edwards' supporters claim that the 527s will protect Edwards from Republican swiftboating should Edwards secure the nomination and be penniless from March through August. But the 527s cannot respond quickly to attacks, and they are not supposed to be coordinating their activities with the campaign.
But look at the stink that has already come up with the 527s and Edwards. Marc Ambinder summarized the stink today in the Atlantic Monthly blog.
Edwards denounces the 527s, but then his recent campaign manager is the head of a clearly pro-Edwards 527.
I like John Edwards and his message, but is this who we want as our change candidate? Can he beat the party establishment with one hand tied behind his back? Is he just playing the spoiler role?