I'm not making a pitch for Mr. Obama specifically, as I am yet undecided. But I want to challenge an idea that I've heard several people express. It goes something like this:
I would love to think that Americans would vote for a candidate without considering skin color, but I honestly can't imagine that America is really like that, especially looking at the racism of southern, white, republican America.
While this idea, if true, would break my heart, it would also break my heart to think that good people would not vote for a black person in the primaries because of issues of elect-ability.
But that's not the point of this posting.
My point is that I think this meme of elect-ability is easy to believe, but completely false.
Background Point: The myth of the red state/blue state divide
Remember the post-2004 election maps that "showed" how divided we are as a nation, with their Blue and Red clashing states? A good graph of the electoral colleges, but not representative of how are political tendencies actually fall geographically.
America is actually more purple, with slight Republican majorities here, and slight Democratic majorities their. You'll find plenty of Republicans in California, and plenty of Democrats in Texas.
The problem with the image of a Red State, Blue State America is that it leads a person in a "Blue State" to imagine that the politics of "Red States" are a million miles apart. The reality is, they are only one hundred miles apart. Sure, there are pockets of disgusting KKK mo-fo's in Alabama, but there are similar pockets a few miles from my house in California.
Main Point: How many racists do you imagine there are in America?
What percentage of voting adults in the US, do you estimate are racist enough to not vote for a candidate because of skin color? 1/10th? 1/4?
Now, according to this CNN poll, only about 12-13% considered themselves "racially biased", and less than half even "knew a person they considered racist". Now, I'm not saying that racism isn't a serious issue, and I certainly think that many people are either dishonest or fooling themselves about their own biases. Let's just, for argument's sake, use these numbers as a starting point.
So if we say that 1/8th (12-13%) is a low estimate at the number of American racists, what is a reasonable guess? How about 2-3 times this number. That gives us 1/4 to 1/3 of America.
So, out of these hypothetical racist Americans, what percentage do you imagine would vote for a white male, Democratic candidate?
I posit that almost all "racist" voters wouldn't be voting for a democrat anyways.
Impassioned argument:
Who exactly is a person worrying about when they speak of the "elect-ability" of a black candidate?
Are they worried that the hard-core, southern, Patriarchal republicans aren't going to vote for the candidate? Give that vote up, already.
Are they worried that the democratic core won't vote for a black candidate? If so, I'd say that improving race relations in their party should move up in priority...
Are they worried about the voters who sometimes vote republican and sometimes vote democrat, the so-called "swing voters"? Now they're thinking. Well, who are these people?
A huge chunk are libertarians:
In particular, polls find that some 10 to 20 percent of voting-age Americans are libertarian, tending to agree with conservatives on economic issues and with liberals on personal freedom.
source
So, to summarize, 2 main characteristics of most of these voters are 1) they have no strong party loyalty either way and 2) they tend to be socially liberal.
Do you really think that race is going to be the deciding factor in how this segment votes?
I HONESTLY DO NOT.