Reading back into Putin's recent political manipulations, and then, even further back, at how Putin seized, consolidated, and has used power in Russia, it is apparent that Putin will shortly seize power in Russia.
The groundwork has already been established. Putin was just acclaimed as Russia's "national leader," and this incredible announcement was strongly reinforced by his overwhelming parlimentary victory.
Putin has deftly complimented these power grabs by craftily positionioning himself as if he was aiming to become a "power behind the presidency" after his constitutionally limited term ends.
I seriously doubt that Putin's public pronouncments reflect his actual plans, although both indicate Putin will seize power.
Many astute observers would say that Putin has already seized power, but that is not completely true. Putin, like Russia, has not consolidated its new identity, nor how it will finally justify political power. That moment is still in the future, and how Putin moves to consolidate, and the ideas he uses to justify institutionalizing long term power in one man's hands will finally define the nature of Russia's actual post-soviet identity.
This is not the Soviet Union, but Soviet, even traditional Russian notions about the structure of, and how power is held still perpeturate themselves, but under different, and yet undetermined, terms of legitimacy.
The underlying terms of identity being established in Russia have some disturbing aspects. The post-Soviet re-creation of Russian identity has bred the elements of Russian neo-fascism. The disturbing elements in the birth of "New Russian" identity contains the backwash of the retreat from the Soviet Empire.
This has expressed itself through intolerance of ex-Soviet minorities who now live in within Russia's borders. Russians in the post-soviet state have received a similar reception from their new governments.
This rising nationalism has expressed itself on the streets of Russia's big cities and small towns. The gangs of the Russians and neo-nazis prowling Russia's streets are indistingishable to outsiders, but they apparently understand the different reasons they beat the same people, and each other. The Russian nationalists gangs have overwhelming superiority.
"New Russia" is no longer based on a unifying idea or identity that trancends nationalism and race, as both commie and capital societies require, but Russia is transitioning to an identity based on an emerging national and racial identity.
Now, I'm not saying that's the only powerful force operating in Russian society today, but it is the most powerful force.
Putin is playing his power grab every way possible; he's consolidating parliamentry power, while pursuing constitutional amendment to extend his power, while maintaining the bueracratic and military authority required to maintain power. Independent of his success in consolidating parliamentry and constitutional power, it seems that Putin's popularity is, and will be, consistent independent of which path Putin takes to maintain the Presidency, be it "national leader," or whatever title he decides to take. Putin appears quite popular.
The chances are that Putin will succeed in all his domestic efforts to first maintain authority, then move towards reshaping his authority as he reshapes Russia's identity, in conjunction with reshaping Russia's relationship with the west, and especially the us.
I'll have to work this idea later, as it's real late, but Bush has exposed our strategic global assets not just by overextending our military, stressing our Euro allies to the breaking point, alienating our Arab allies, and removing the restraints of the global Rule of Law from every tin-plated dictator in the world, but he has provoked Russia. That could be Bush's worse mistake in the mid to long term, and possibly earlier, if the Iraq war morphs into a civil or regional war.
Putin may find that the heights of power he is able to create in Russia will reflect the average Russian's perception of the outside threats confronting Russia. Our interventions in Serbia, the Ukraine, the stans, and the whole belt of post-soviet states that straddle Russia's soft underbelly have freaked the Russians out, and heavily contributed to the consolidation of post-soviet nationalism in Russia.
Tomorrow: Russia's likely position in the emerging new world balance of power.
Still interested? See this shit:
Russian President Lashes Out at West
Putin backed for ‘national leader’ status, FT, Nov 7, 2007
Putin Signals He'll Retain Power, Time, Nov 13, 2007
Putins Choice, april 27, 2007
Russia Links