This post was written by my friend Matt Bailey, President of the National Democratic Law Students Council, and a citizen of the northwest Louisiana district that McCrery represents:
Ten-term Republican congressman Jim McCrery (LA-4) is likely announcing his retirement tonight at 8:15pm CST from the site of his holiday party in Shreveport. His office invited local media for an important announcement, but would not give any clues on what to expect.
Local News Report
The Politico also has it.
Local politicos have known that his retirement was coming since he attempted the same in 2004 before being convinced to remain for another term by Republican leaders. The big question in my mind is whether his announcement will be merely that he will not seek reelection, or whether he will follow Trent Lott out the revolving door and be gone before the first of the year. I think the latter is more likely.
McCrery was so sure of his 2004 retirement that he moved his family to a DC suburb and started making plans with former Louisiana senator John Breaux to partner up in a new lobbying firm (and has since not maintained any semblance of permanent residence back in the district, staying with one of his attorney friends when he goes back to LA to "work").
This announcement should open up a horse race for his replacement. The most likely Republican successor is Shreveport attorney, former mayoral candidate (’06), and McCrery’s attorney Jerry Jones. If he gets in, which I’m sure he will, I doubt any other viable Repubs will join him.
On the D side, it’s really anyone’s guess. I have heard rumors of a handful of current and former state representatives, as well as former two-term Shreveport mayor Keith Hightower, as possible candidates. And Patti Cox, local party organizer and environmental consultant who ran in ’06, is planning to run again.
This is a district that could very easily return to Democratic hands. It leans Republican (+7) and went strongly in favor of Bush in the last two races (59% in ’04). But the contentious Shreveport mayoral race in 2006 went to the African-American democrat Cedric Glover by a wider-than-expected margin in a contest that went down to the wire and split the electorate largely along racial lines. If that was any prediction, turnout could be the deciding factor in this district.
Another big factor is going to be whether he resigns by December 31st or stays through his term. He won in 1988 in a special election, and there is a good argument that a Republican successor could win more easily in a special election this spring where the turnout would be lower (LA is already holding one to fill Gov.-elect Bobby Jindal’s seat). If that were the case, it would take a Democrat with name recognition in the district to be able to put up a fight against Jones. Hightower is the name that comes to mind, though rumor has it he is still dealing with some no-bid contract controversies from his last term as mayor.
Depending on the circumstances, this is very likely a district that will go into the "toss-up" column with McCrery’s announcement tonight. This will definitely be one to watch.
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Matt Bailey